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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-13.5 (+02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-12.5 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   1.631%  
 
  Resistance   1.529%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
 
 
    The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.563% this morning after closing at 1.566% yesterday.
 
    Mortgage Applications index rose 2.80% last week vs. a decline of 2.10% prior. The ADP Private Sector Employment data for August was released today following a steady growth over the past few months. Employment numbers came in at 177K, just above the consensus of 175K which provides further reassurance that the labor market conditions remain strong. The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index fell to 51.50, 2.50 below consensus, despite positive business activity for 7 months over the past year.
 
   With much focus on the Non-Farm Payroll data scheduled to be released this Friday, many economist are carefully reviewing the current market conditions for the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting on Sept 20-21.
 
    The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year 1 bp down from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/29 Personal Income 05:30 Jul 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  08/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  08/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jul 1.50% 1.60% 1.60% -  
                   
  08/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Aug -3.90 - -1.30 -  
                   
  08/30 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Aug 97.00 101.10 97.30 96.70  
                   
  08/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Aug - 2.80% -2.10% -  
                   
  08/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Aug 175K 177K 179K 194K  
                   
  08/31 Chicago Purchasing Manager 06:45 Aug 54.00 51.50 55.80 -  
                   
  08/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.70% 1.30% 0.20% -0.80%  
                   
  08/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jul 2.20% -2.20% 0.30% -0.70%  
                   
  09/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Aug - - -57.10% -  
                   
  09/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q F -0.60% - -0.50% -  
                   
  09/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Aug 265K - 261K -  
                   
  09/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Aug 2143K - 2145K -  
                   
  09/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Aug - - 45.30 -  
                   
  09/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Aug F 52.10 - 52.10 -  
                   
  09/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jul 0.50% - -0.60% -  
                   
  09/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Aug 52.00 - 52.60 -  
                   
  09/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Aug 185K - 255K -  
                   
  09/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Aug 4.80% - 4.90% -  
                   
  09/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jul 2.00% - -1.50% -  
                   
  09/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jul F - - 4.40% -  
                   
  09/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jul F - - 1.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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