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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-01.5 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-18.5 (+02)  
 
  Support   2.218%  
 
  Resistance   2.084%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, August 31, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.129% after closing at 2.132% prior.

In economic news, we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on August 26th which rose 1k to 236k from an upwardly revised 235k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ending on August 19th fell to 1942k from 1954k the week prior which was 9k below expectations. We also received July's Personal Income report, which rose above expectations at 0.40% versus an increase of 0.30% per consensus. This was the strongest month for income growth since February's 0.50% gain. Personal Spending rose 0.30% following an upwardly revised increase of 0.20% in June.

On the inflation side, both the headline PCE Deflator and the Core PCE Deflator rose 0.10% in July. Both came in line with expectations as consensus called for a 0.10% increase. Moreover, prices in both measures rose 1.40% YoY as expected per consensus. While July's inflation data could have little impact on the Fed's September announcement on the balance sheet, it will certainly be an important driving force behind the Fed's decision for a third rate hike later this year should the inflation data in the next few months remain steady.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year down 0.3 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jul P 0.30% 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  08/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Aug 17.00 17.00 16.80 -  
                   
  08/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jun 0.10% 0.11% 0.10% 0.13%  
                   
  08/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jun 5.60% 5.65% 5.69% 5.74%  
                   
  08/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Aug - -2.30% -0.50% -  
                   
  08/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Aug 185k 237k 178k 201k  
                   
  08/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q S 2.70% 3.00% 2.60% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q S 3.00% 3.30% 2.80% -  
                   
  08/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q S 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -  
                   
  08/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q S 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% -  
                   
  08/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Aug - 5.10% -37.60% -  
                   
  08/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  08/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jul 0.40% 0.30% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  08/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Aug 238k 236k 234k 235k  
                   
  08/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Aug 1951k 1942k 1954k -  
                   
  08/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  08/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jul 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% -  
                   
  08/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jul 1.40% 1.40% 1.50% -  
                   
  08/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 Aug - 53.30 52.80 -  
                   
  08/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.30% -0.80% 1.50% 1.30%  
                   
  08/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jul 0.50% -0.50% 0.70% 0.40%  
                   
  09/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Aug 180k - 209k -  
                   
  09/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Aug 4.30% - 4.30% -  
                   
  09/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Aug 2.60% - 2.50% -  
                   
  09/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Aug - - 62.90% -  
                   
  09/01 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Aug - - 8.60% -  
                   
  09/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Aug F 52.50 - 52.50 -  
                   
  09/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Aug 56.50 - 56.30 -  
                   
  09/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Aug 62.00 - 62.00 -  
                   
  09/01 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug F 97.50 - 97.60 -  
                   
  09/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jul 0.50% - -1.30% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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