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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-08.5 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-14 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, August 31, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.843% after closing at 2.856% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight and into the open on trade tensions and geopolitical concerns. A whirl of headlines swarmed the global markets yesterday that included geopolitical turmoil in Argentina and revamped trade tensions between U.S. and China. Emerging-market assets fell while the dollar rallied mid-session as investors sold riskier assets after Argentina announced to hike its benchmark interest rate to 60 percent to protect its currency. Later in the session, U.S. equities and stocks fell after reports surfaced that President Trump will proceed with imposing tariffs on an additional $200 Billion Chinese goods as early as next week. Emerging markets lowered further overnight as contagion spread from Argentina and Turkey that saw the Indian rupee drop to a record, while the dollar extended gains with Treasuries early in today's session.

This morning we have a quiet end to the economic calendar week with just the August Chicago Purchasing Manager and the final August reading of the University of Michigan Sentiment available heading into the long weekend. The Chicago Purchasing Manager fell to 63.60 in August after reporting at 65.50 reading level the month prior; consensus called for the print to drop back to 63.00. The final reading of the August University of Michigan Sentiment rose to 96.20 from its previous estimate of 95.30, and beat expectations as consensus called for the final level to show 95.50. The Sentiment 1 year Inflation rose to 3.00% from 2.90% prior, while the 5-10 year Sentiment rose to 2.60% from 2.50% prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.3 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/27 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jul 0.45 0.13 0.43 0.48  
                   
  08/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Aug 30.00 30.90 32.30 -  
                   
  08/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jul P 0.20% 0.70% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jun 0.20% 0.11% 0.20% 0.21%  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jun 6.40% 6.31% 6.51% 6.54%  
                   
  08/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Aug 17.00 24.00 20.00 -  
                   
  08/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Aug - -1.70% 4.20% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q S 4.00% 4.20% 4.10% -  
                   
  08/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q S 3.90% 3.80% 4.00% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q S 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q S 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.30% -0.70% 0.90% 1.00%  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jul -2.50% -0.50% -4.00% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jul 2.00% 2.00% 1.90% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Income 05:30 Jul 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Jul 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jul 2.30% 2.30% 2.20% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Aug 212K 213K 210K -  
                   
  08/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Aug 1725K 1708K 1727K -  
                   
  08/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Aug - 58.30 58.60 -  
                   
  08/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug F 95.50 96.20 95.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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