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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

September 04, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   99-16.5 (-06)
FN 3.5% COUPON   102-23.5 (-03)
SUPPORT   2.660%
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ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth in August is 204K vs. 218K prior (consensus 220K). Nonfarm Productivity growth for the second quarter slipped to a 2.3% annualized gain following a 4.5% decline in the first quarter. Initial Jobless Claims posted 302K vs. 298K prior and Continuing claims fell to 2464K vs. 2527K prior. Total July exports of $198 Billion and imports of $238.6 Billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.5 Billion, down from July’s revised $40.8 Billion. The July goods deficit declined -$0.2 Billion from June to $60.2 Billion and the services surplus was unchanged at $19.6 Billion. The goods and services deficit increased $1.1 Billion YoYTreasuries rose this morning as the European Central Bank lowered interest rates and committed to buying debt, fueling demand for safe haven assets. The curve has bear steepened with 2s10s 2.7 bps steeper and MBS 1 tick tighter to hedges.

This Week's Events:

09/04 ADP Employment Change 05:15 August 220K 204K 218K 212K
09/04 Trade Balance 05:30 July -$42.4 Billion -$40.5 Billion -$41.5 Billion -$40.8 Billion
09/04 Jobless Claims 05:30 August 30 300K 302K 298K -
09/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 August 23 2510K 2464K 2527K 2528K
09/04 Markit Services PMI 06:45 August F 58.5 - 58.5 -
09/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 August F - - 58.8 -
09/05 Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 August 230K - 209K -
09/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 August 6.1% - 6.2% -



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