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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-26.5 (+02.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-07.5 (+03)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 06, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.899% after closing at 2.903% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight ahead of the August report on private nonfarm payroll growth, while U.S. stock futures were mixed as the turmoil in emerging markets looms. A busy economic calendar day kicked off with the ADP Employment Change for August which showed 163k new jobs were added following a downwardly revised 217k increase in July; consensus called for a 200k gain. We also received the final reading of the 2Q Nonfarm Productivity which remained unchanged from prior at a 2.90% gain, while the final print of the 2Q Unit Labor Costs fell 1.00% after showing a 0.90% drop prior. Moreover, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 1 fell 10k to 203k and hit its lowest level since 1969.

Also released, the final reading of the August Markit US Services PMI came in below expectations at 54.80 versus 55.20 per consensus, while the Markit US Composite PMI dropped back to 54.70 from 55.00 prior. The July Factory Orders fell 0.80% month-over-month following a slight downwardly revised 0.60% gain in June. Factory Orders excluding transportation gained 0.20% following a 0.40% increase in June. Durable Goods Orders fell 1.70% in July which marked a consecutive month of a 1.70% drop. Durables excluding transportation showed a slight increase of 0.10% after rising 0.20% in June. Lastly, the Capital Goods Orders Nondefense excluding aircraft rose 1.60% in July, and Capital Goods Ship Nondefense excluding aircraft increased 1.00% MoM.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.4 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/03 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  09/04 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Aug F 54.50 54.70 54.50 -  
                   
  09/04 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jul 0.40% 0.10% -1.10% -0.80%  
                   
  09/04 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Aug 57.60 61.30 58.10 -  
                   
  09/04 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Aug 69.50 72.10 73.20 -  
                   
  09/05 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 31 Aug - -0.10% -1.70% -  
                   
  09/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Jul -$50.20b -$50.10b -$46.30b -$45.70b  
                   
  09/06 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Aug - 13.70% -4.20% -  
                   
  09/06 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Aug 200k 163k 219k 217k  
                   
  09/06 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q F 3.00% 2.90% 2.90% -  
                   
  09/06 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q F -0.90% -1.00% -0.90% -  
                   
  09/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 1 Sep 213k 203k 213k -  
                   
  09/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 25 Aug 1720k 1707k 1708k 1710k  
                   
  09/06 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 2 Sep - 58.00 58.30 -  
                   
  09/06 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Aug F 55.20 54.80 55.20 -  
                   
  09/06 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Aug F - 54.70 55.00 -  
                   
  09/06 Factory Orders 07:00 Jul -0.60% -0.80% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  09/06 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jul F -1.70% -1.70% -1.70% -  
                   
  09/06 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jul F - 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Aug 195K - 157K -  
                   
  09/07 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Aug 3.80% - 3.90% -  
                   
  09/07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Aug 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  09/07 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Aug - - 62.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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