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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-14 (-17)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-0.5 (-10)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, September 07, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.943% after closing at 2.874% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight and into the open ahead of the August employment reports before selling off as the jobs data revealed another strong outing and an unexpected gain on wage earnings. The Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.40% MoM while consensus called for a 0.20% increase following a 0.30% gain in July. Moreover, the Average Hourly Earnings YoY also bested expectations which came rose 2.90% versus a surveyed 2.70% increase. Nonfarm Payrolls also came in stronger than expected and grew 201k in August following a downwardly revised 147k increase in July; consensus called for a gain of 190k. Private Payrolls grew 204k in August following a revised 153k increase in July, while Manufacturing Payrolls fell 3k following a revised 18k gain prior. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged MoM at 3.90%.

With another strong job growth reported in August, the Feds are given further support to maintain their stance on gradual rate increases. There are several Fed members scheduled to speak today including Boston Fed President Rosengren, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan. Elsewhere, investors remain on edge for the latest developments on the ongoing trade dispute between U.S. and China. It was reported earlier this week that President Trump may proceed with more tariffs imposition on an additional $200 Billion Chinese imports this week, but the formal announcement from the White House has yet to be released.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 6.9 bps from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/03 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  09/04 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Aug F 54.50 54.70 54.50 -  
                   
  09/04 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jul 0.40% 0.10% -1.10% -0.80%  
                   
  09/04 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Aug 57.60 61.30 58.10 -  
                   
  09/04 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Aug 69.50 72.10 73.20 -  
                   
  09/05 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 31 Aug - -0.10% -1.70% -  
                   
  09/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Jul -$50.20b -$50.10b -$46.30b -$45.70b  
                   
  09/06 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Aug - 13.70% -4.20% -  
                   
  09/06 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Aug 200k 163k 219k 217k  
                   
  09/06 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q F 3.00% 2.90% 2.90% -  
                   
  09/06 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q F -0.90% -1.00% -0.90% -  
                   
  09/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 1 Sep 213k 203k 213k -  
                   
  09/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 25 Aug 1720k 1707k 1708k 1710k  
                   
  09/06 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 2 Sep - 58.00 58.30 -  
                   
  09/06 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Aug F 55.20 54.80 55.20 -  
                   
  09/06 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Aug F - 54.70 55.00 -  
                   
  09/06 Factory Orders 07:00 Jul -0.60% -0.80% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  09/06 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jul F -1.70% -1.70% -1.70% -  
                   
  09/06 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jul F - 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Aug 190K 201k 157K 147k  
                   
  09/07 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Aug 3.80% 3.90% 3.90% -  
                   
  09/07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  09/07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Aug 2.70% 2.90% 2.70% -  
                   
  09/07 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Aug - 62.70% 62.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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