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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

September 11, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   98-25.5 (+06)
FN 3.5% COUPON   101-31 (+04)
SUPPORT   2.660%
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Last Week Jobless Claims unexpectedly hit a two-month high, interrupting the prior steady decline to pre-recession levels. Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 300K) posted 315K vs. 304K prior (revised) and Continuing Claims (consensus 2490K) rose to 2487K vs. 2478K prior (revised). This unexpected rise in Initial Claims, coupled with last Friday's disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls, could affect the FOMC’s rate decision next week. The Treasury monthly budget report for July showed the deficit is running 24% percent below last year’s, and expectations for August are for -$130 Billion. 10-Year notes rose for the first time in six days as concern that political tension in the Middle East will escalate fueled demand for the safe haven assets, ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The curve has bull steepened with 2s10s up +1.6 bps.

This Week's Events:

09/11 Jobless Claims 05:30 September 6 300K 315K 302K 304K
09/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 August 30 2490K 2487K 2464K 2478K
09/12 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 August 0.6% - 0.0% -
09/12 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 August -1.0% - -0.2% -
09/12 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 August -0.4% - 0.8% -
09/12 University of Michigan Confidence 06:55 September P 83.3 - 82.5 -



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