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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-05.5 (-10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-26 (-06)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.973% after closing at 2.932% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight despite trade tensions escalating further between the U.S. and China on headlines that China will request the World Trade Organization for authorization to retaliate against the U.S. for trade violations. The claim against the U.S. is for failing to modify their anti-dumping methodology from a ruling last year. U.S. Stocks slipped with U.S. equity futures as the relationship gap between U.S. and China continue to widen. President Trump has also stated that the administration is ready to impose tariffs on more Chinese goods, although a formal announcement has yet to be released. The latest development on this trade war is overshadowing optimism for a trade deal between the European Union and the U.S.

On the economic calendar, we received the August NFIB Small Business Optimism which edged higher than expected to a new record high after rising to 108.80 versus 108.00 per consensus; its previous mark remained unchanged at 107.90. Elsewhere, the JOLTS Job Openings rose to a record in July to 6.939 Million from an upwardly revised 6.822 Million prior. We also received the final print of the July Wholesale Inventories which rose 0.60% after showing a 0.70% increase prior; consensus called for a 0.70% increase MoM. Lastly, the Wholesale Trade Sales was unchanged in July at 0.00% following a revised 0.20% drop prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will auction $35 Billion 3-Year Notes.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 4.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/10 Consumer Credit 12:00 Jul $14.000b $16.640b $10.211b $8.463b  
                   
  09/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Aug 108.00 108.80 107.90 -  
                   
  09/11 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jul 6675 6939 6662 6822  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jul F 0.70% 0.60% 0.70% -  
                   
  09/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 7 Sep - - -0.10% -  
                   
  09/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.00% -  
                   
  09/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Aug 3.20% - 3.30% -  
                   
  09/12 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  09/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Aug 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  09/13 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 8 Sep 210k - 203k -  
                   
  09/13 Continuing Claims 05:30 1 Sep 1710k - 1707k -  
                   
  09/13 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 9 Sep - - 58.00 -  
                   
  09/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Aug -$183.00b - -$76.90b -  
                   
  09/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.50% -  
                   
  09/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug -0.20% - 0.00% -  
                   
  09/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug 4.10% - 4.80% -  
                   
  09/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug 0.00% - -0.50% -  
                   
  09/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug - - 4.30% -  
                   
  09/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Aug 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Aug 78.20% - 78.10% -  
                   
  09/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Jul 0.60% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/14 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep P 96.60 - 96.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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