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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-03.5 (-06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-14 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.457%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Down as Some American Companies Move Away From China
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.7230, 0.86 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.7316.

Stocks advanced today as Apple shares traded 0.50% higher, giving the tech sector a much-needed lift, after it released a line of new products. The Dow Jones traded 21 points higher at the open, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were just above flat-line. China previously stated that they would potentially start purchasing more US agricultural products. China’s Ministry of Finance issued an exemptions list of 16 US products that will no longer be subject to the 25% tariffs. Meanwhile, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, some American companies are speeding up their move away from China amid the imposition of US tariffs. The developments come as the US and China plan to meet early October to make progress on easing trade war tensions; the negative effects of which are a major reason why the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are being looked at for potential rate cuts. The US Treasury will offer $24 billion at its monthly auction of 10-Year notes, a decrease of $3 billion from the last offering. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries and 2-Year Treasuries fell less than one basis point to 1.73% and 1.67%, respectively.

A measure of underlying US producer prices, excluding fuel and food, increased in August, after reporting its smallest gain in two years, indicating inflation may be starting to stabilize. Core producer prices increased 2.30% in August from a year earlier, following a 2.10% gain. Including food and energy, the index rose 0.10% from July and 1.80% from August 2018. The data also showed the costs of arranging freight and cargo shipments jumped 4.80% from July, reflecting the effect on supply chains from tariffs. Gold strengthened 0.40% to $1,488.81 an ounce, the first advance in a week, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained another 0.70% to $57.80 a barrel.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.86 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/09 Consumer Credit 12:00 Jul $16.000b - $14.569b -  
                   
  09/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Aug 103.50 103.10 104.70 -  
                   
  09/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jul 7331 7217 7348 7248  
                   
  09/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Sep - 0.20% -3.10% -  
                   
  09/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Aug 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jul - 0.30% -0.30% -  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jul F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Aug 1.80% - 1.80% -  
                   
  09/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Sep 215k - 217k -  
                   
  09/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 31 Aug 1675k - 1662k -  
                   
  09/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Sep - - 63.40 -  
                   
  09/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Aug -197.50b - -$119.70b -  
                   
  09/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug -0.50% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug -2.00% - -1.80% -  
                   
  09/13 Export Price Index MoM 07:00 Aug -0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug - - -0.90% -  
                   
  09/13 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.70% -  
                   
  09/13 U. of Mich. Sentiment 05:30 Sep P 90.80 - 89.80 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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