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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-23 (-09.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-13.5 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.457%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 12, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Decline Following ECB Rate Cut
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.7109, 2.76 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.7385.

Stocks opened higher as the US agreed to delay the October 1st tariff increase to October 15th, which will affect about $250 billion in Chinese imports. The Dow Jones rose 57 points (0.20%) at the open, the S&P 500 gained 3.00%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.50%. The Dow and S&P 500 entered today’s session less than 1.00% from record highs reached in July. The Dow also closed above 27,000 on Wednesday for the first time since July 30th while the S&P 500 broke above 3,000 for the first time since July 31st. The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points and established a new bond buying program. The bank will buy €20 billion worth of assets for as long as needed; the Euro dropped 0.20% against the Dollar following the announcement. Gold jumped 1.40% to $1,517.71 an ounce and silver advance to 0.80% to $18.27 per ounce. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries decreased 6 basis points to 1.68%, while the yield on 2-year Treasuries remained virtually unchanged. The US Treasury will offer $40 billion and $50 billion at its weekly auction of 8-week and 4-week bills, respectively.

The US Core Inflation Report reflected the biggest monthly rise in medical-care costs since 2016 and record increases in health-insurance prices. The Medical-Care Index rose 0.70% from the prior month. The report reflected a 1.90% monthly rise and 18.60% annual increase in health-insurance prices, along with increases in hospital services and non-prescription drugs. Also contributing to the core inflation gain were used-car prices, which were up 1.10% for a 3rd straight increase, while new vehicle costs dropped for a second month. Energy prices fell 1.90% from the prior month as gasoline dropped 3.50%. Food prices we unchanged for a third month, while apparel was up 0.20%. A separate report from the Labor Department showed average hourly earnings rose 1.50% in August from a year earlier, following 1.40% in July.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.76 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/09 Consumer Credit 12:00 Jul $16.000b - $14.569b -  
                   
  09/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Aug 103.50 103.10 104.70 -  
                   
  09/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jul 7331 7217 7348 7248  
                   
  09/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Sep - 0.20% -3.10% -  
                   
  09/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Aug 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jul - 0.30% -0.30% -  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jul F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.30% -  
                   
  09/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Aug 1.80% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  09/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Sep 215k 204k 217k 219k  
                   
  09/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 31 Aug 1675k 1670k 1662k 1674k  
                   
  09/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Sep - 63.20 63.40 -  
                   
  09/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Aug -$200.00b - -$214.10b -  
                   
  09/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug -0.50% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug -2.00% - -1.80% -  
                   
  09/13 Export Price Index MoM 07:00 Aug -0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug - - -0.90% -  
                   
  09/13 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.70% -  
                   
  09/13 U. of Mich. Sentiment 05:30 Sep P 90.80 - 89.80 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
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