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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-06.5 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-24 (-0.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 13, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.956% after closing at 2.964% prior.

Treasuries dipped overnight and opened lower at the start of today's session before erasing those early losses after U.S. inflation unexpectedly simmered in August. The Consumer Price Index came in lower than expected as it showed an increase of 0.20% MoM while consensus called for the index to rise 0.30%. The CPI YoY level also came in lower than expected as it reflected a 2.70% increase versus a surveyed 2.80% rise. Moreover, CPI excluding Food and Energy rose just 0.10% MoM following a 0.20% increase prior while it was expected to gain another 0.20% per consensus; its YoY level rose just 2.20% which was also below expectations as consensus called for a 2.40% increase. Treasury yields declined as investors weighed the outlook of the Fed's rate path following the inflation data.

We also received the August Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY which rose 0.50% versus a 0.10% increase prior. Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY rose 0.20% following a revised 0.10% decline prior. Also on the calendar, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 8 fell 1k to 204k from an upwardly revised 205k the week prior. Continuing claims for the week ended September 1 fell 15k to 1696k from a revised 1711k the week prior. The recent run of low jobless claims levels continues to reflect a tight labor market. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will sell $15 Billion 30-Year Bonds. Also later today, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy during a scheduled speech in Mississippi.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.8 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/10 Consumer Credit 12:00 Jul $14.000b $16.640b $10.211b $8.463b  
                   
  09/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Aug 108.00 108.80 107.90 -  
                   
  09/11 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jul 6675 6939 6662 6822  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  09/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jul F 0.70% 0.60% 0.70% -  
                   
  09/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 7 Sep - -1.80% -0.10% -  
                   
  09/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% -0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  09/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Aug 3.20% 2.80% 3.30% -  
                   
  09/12 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  09/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Aug 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Aug 2.80% 2.70% 2.90% -  
                   
  09/13 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 8 Sep 210k 204k 203k 205k  
                   
  09/13 Continuing Claims 05:30 1 Sep 1710k 1696k 1707k 1711k  
                   
  09/13 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 9 Sep - 59.00 58.00 -  
                   
  09/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Aug -$211.00b - -$107.70b -  
                   
  09/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.50% -  
                   
  09/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug -0.20% - 0.00% -  
                   
  09/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug 4.10% - 4.80% -  
                   
  09/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug 0.00% - -0.50% -  
                   
  09/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug - - 4.30% -  
                   
  09/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Aug 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Aug 78.20% - 78.10% -  
                   
  09/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Jul 0.60% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/14 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep P 96.60 - 96.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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