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Market Commentary


Monday
September 15, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   98-03 (+05) 2.591%
FN 3.5% COUPON   101-18 (+04)
SUPPORT   2.660%
RESISTANCE   2.200%
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This week’s data will be eclipsed by Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and QE pace announcement, and we watch for increasing volatility in the markets as we approach their decision. New York’s manufacturing sector is showing strength this month, up nearly +12 points to 27.54. New orders are up, albeit slightly, to 16.86 vs. 14.14 prior while employment growth slowed sharply to 3.26 vs. 13.64 prior. Industrial Production strengthened in July, increasing a robust +0.4%. The manufacturing component surged +1.0% in July, following a +0.3% advance in June. Expectations for August Industrial Production are for a healthy +0.3% increase. Treasuries are opening up this morning little changed from Friday’s 2:00 PM (PDT) close, ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC data. The curve has bull flattened with 2s10s down -1 bps.

This Week's Events:

DATE EVENTS TIME (PDT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
09/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 September 15.95 27.54 14.69 -
09/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 August 0.3% -0.1% 0.4% 0.2%
09/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 August 79.3% 78.8% 79.2% 79.1%
09/16 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 August 0.0% - 0.1% -
09/16 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 August 1.8% - 1.7% -
09/16 Net Long-Term TIC Flows 13:00 July $25.0 Billion - -$18.7 Billion -
09/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 September 12 - - -7.2% -
09/17 CPI MoM 05:30 August 0.0% - 0.1% -
09/17 CPI YoY 05:30 August 1.9% - 2.0% -
09/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 September 56 - 55 -
09/17 Fed QE3 Pace 11:00 September $15.0 Billion - $25.0 Billion -
09/17 FOMC Rate Decision 11:00 September 17 0.25% - 0.25% -
09/18 Jobless Claims 05:30 September 13 305K - 315K -
09/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 September 6 2466K - 2487K -
09/18 Housing Starts 05:30 August 1038K - 1093K -
09/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 August -5.0% - 15.7% -
09/18 Building Permits 05:30 August 1040K - 1052K 1057K
09/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 August -1.6% - 8.1% 8.6%
09/18 Phili Fed 07:00 September 23.0 - 28.0 -
09/19 Leading Index 07:00 August 0.4% - 0.9% -

 

 

 
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