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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-09 (-04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-07 (-01.5)  
 
  Support   2.222%  
 
  Resistance   2.016%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, September 18, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning from Friday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.222% after closing at 2.203% prior.

Treasury yields inched higher overnight ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that will begin tomorrow and conclude on Wednesday. The market is expecting the Feds to discuss the beginning of the balance sheet reduction plan, and is also expecting the committee keep the current rates unchanged. Although the vast majority of the Committee still expects to see another rate hike later this year, the recent run of weak inflation data could play a role in potentially changing that outlook.

This week's economic data kicks off quietly this morning with just the NAHB Housing Market Index for September, which fell to 64.00 from a downwardly revised 67.00 in August. Later today at 1:00 PM (PT) we will receive the Total Net TIC Flows and Net Long-term TIC Flows for July. The remainder of this week's calendar will be heavily focused on more housing data with Tuesday's Housing Starts and Building Permits for August, Wednesday's Existing Home Sales for August, and Thursday's FHFA House Price Index for July. On Friday we will receive the Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Markit US Services PMI, and the Markit US Composite PMI for September.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 1.9 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/18 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Sep 67.00 64.00 68.00 67.00  
                   
  09/18 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jul - - $7.70b -  
                   
  09/18 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jul - - $34.40b -  
                   
  09/19 Housing Starts 05:30 Aug 1174k - 1155k -  
                   
  09/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Aug 1.70% - -4.80% -  
                   
  09/19 Building Permits 05:30 Aug 1220k - 1223k 1230k  
                   
  09/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Aug -0.80% - -4.10% -3.50%  
                   
  09/19 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/19 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug 2.20% - 1.50% -  
                   
  09/19 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  09/19 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug - - 0.80% -  
                   
  09/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 15 Sep - - 9.90% -  
                   
  09/20 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Aug 5.46m - 5.44m -  
                   
  09/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.40% - -1.30% -  
                   
  09/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 20 Sep 1.25% - 1.25% -  
                   
  09/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 20 Sep 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  09/21 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 16 Sep 300k - 284k -  
                   
  09/21 Continuing Claims 05:30 9 Sep 1975k - 1944k -  
                   
  09/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Sep 17.00 - 18.90 -  
                   
  09/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 17 Sep - - 51.90 -  
                   
  09/21 Leading Index 07:00 Aug 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/22 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep P 53.00 - 52.80 -  
                   
  09/22 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep P 55.80 - 56.00 -  
                   
  09/22 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep P - - 55.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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