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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-10 (-02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-05.5 (-02)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 20, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.077% after closing at 3.064% prior.

Treasuries opened lower to start today's session as the downward trend continues while investors await the latest developments on global trade. U.S. Stocks and equity futures rose with treasury yields overnight while the dollar weakened after a report stated that U.S. and Canada are unlikely to reach an agreement on Nafta this week. Elsewhere, China will reportedly cut the average import taxes from the majority of its trading partners in an attempt to absorb some of the potential negative impacts from its trade dispute with the U.S. On the economic calendar, we received the September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook which bounced back to 22.90 from 11.90 in August; consensus called for the index to come in at 18.00. Moreover, the U.S. Bloomberg Economic Expectations index rose to 57.50 in September after reporting at 57.00 prior.

Initial Jobless Claims continue to reflect a very tight labor market as it fell 3k to 201k for the week ended September 15 from an unrevised 204k claims the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended September 8 fell 51k to 1645k from an unrevised 1696k the week prior; continuing claims came in well below expectations as consensus called for it to rise to 1705k. We also received the August Existing Home Sales report which was unchanged MoM at 5.34m unit rate following a drop of 0.70% in July. Lastly, we received the August Leading Index which rose 0.40% MoM following an upwardly revised 0.70% increase in July. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will sell 10-Year TIPS Reopening.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/17 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Sep 23.00 19.00 25.60 -  
                   
  09/18 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Sep 66.00 67.00 67.00 -  
                   
  09/18 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jul $46.00b $52.20b $114.50b $189.70b  
                   
  09/18 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jul - $74.80b -$36.50b -  
                   
  09/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 14 Sep - 1.60% -1.80% -  
                   
  09/19 Housing Starts 05:30 Aug 1240k 1282k 1168k 1174k  
                   
  09/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Aug 5.70% 9.20% 0.90% -0.30%  
                   
  09/19 Building Permits 05:30 Aug 1310k 1229k 1311k 1303k  
                   
  09/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Aug 0.50% -5.70% 1.50% 0.90%  
                   
  09/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Sep 18.00 22.90 11.90 -  
                   
  09/20 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 15 Sep 210k 201k 204k -  
                   
  09/20 Continuing Claims 05:30 8 Sep 1705k 1645k 1696k -  
                   
  09/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 16 Sep - 60.20 59.00 -  
                   
  09/20 Leading Index 07:00 Aug 0.50% 0.40% 0.60% 0.70%  
                   
  09/20 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Aug 5.37m 5.34m 5.34m -  
                   
  09/20 Existing Home Sales  MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% 0.00% -0.70% -  
                   
  09/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep P 55.00 - 54.70 -  
                   
  09/21 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep P 55.00 - 54.80 -  
                   
  09/21 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep P - - 54.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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