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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-30 (+04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-05 (+02)  
 
  Support   2.282%  
 
  Resistance   2.153%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 21, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.250% after closing at 2.268% prior.

Yesterday treasuries sold off at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting as the Feds announced their plan to begin the normalization of the balance sheet in October and sounded rather hawkish about another rate hike later this year. The Official Statement consisted of minor changes to its previous language in assessing current economic activity and monetary policy while acknowledging better business investment. The Committee also reiterated their belief that inflation would return to their target 2.00% over the medium term.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on September 16th which fell to 259k from a downwardly revised 282k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ending on September 9th rose to 1980k from a downwardly revised 1936k the week prior. According to the Department of Labor, claims were affected by both Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma. We also received the FHFA House Price Index for July which rose below expectations at 0.20% versus 0.40% per consensus; Home Price Index rose just 0.10% in June.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year down 1.8 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/18 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Sep 67.00 64.00 68.00 67.00  
                   
  09/18 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jul - -$7.30b $7.70b $5.90b  
                   
  09/18 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jul - $1.30b $34.40b -  
                   
  09/19 Housing Starts 05:30 Aug 1174k 1180k 1155k 1190k  
                   
  09/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Aug 1.70% -0.80% -4.80% -2.20%  
                   
  09/19 Building Permits 05:30 Aug 1220k 1300k 1223k 1230k  
                   
  09/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Aug -0.80% 5.70% -4.10% -3.50%  
                   
  09/19 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug 0.40% 0.60% 0.10% -0.10%  
                   
  09/19 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug 2.20% 2.10% 1.50% 1.20%  
                   
  09/19 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% 0.60% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  09/19 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Aug - 2.30% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  09/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 15 Sep - -9.70% 9.90% -  
                   
  09/20 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Aug 5.45m 5.35m 5.44m -  
                   
  09/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.20% -1.70% -1.30% -  
                   
  09/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 20 Sep 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% -  
                   
  09/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 20 Sep 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -  
                   
  09/21 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 16 Sep 302k 259k 284k 282k  
                   
  09/21 Continuing Claims 05:30 Sep 1975k 1980k 1944k 1936k  
                   
  09/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Sep 17.10 23.80 18.90 -  
                   
  09/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.40% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  09/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 17 Sep - 50.60 51.90 -  
                   
  09/21 Leading Index 07:00 Aug 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  09/22 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep P 53.00 - 52.80 -  
                   
  09/22 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep P 55.70 - 56.00 -  
                   
  09/22 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep P - - 55.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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