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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-18.5 (+14.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-17.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.442%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, September 23, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower amid Global Growth Concerns
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching higher across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6783, 4.32 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.7215.

Both US and European equities slid after weak data out of Europe spooked the markets over global growth concerns. Treasuries rose along with the dollar. Manufacturing activity in Germany shrank at the fastest pace in a decade and the country’s manufacturing PMI plunged to 41.40. Manufacturing in the euro-area fell to the weakest level in more than six years while services grew at its slowest pace in eight months. At the end of last week, the news that China cancelled a planned visit to US farms caused an outbreak of trade pessimism, sending equities south. However, it was later reported that the cancellation was a request from the US and was not due to a worsening of relations. China called the latest meeting “constructive” while the US addressed it as “productive”. Elsewhere, WTI crude slightly edged higher this morning, trading above $58 a barrel.

Chicago Fed National Activity index came in higher than expectation of -0.03 at 0.10 after the prior reading revised to -0.41. Despite of the weak data out of Europe, Markit US Manufacturing PMI printed 51.00 vs. 50.40 consensus following 50.30 reading in prior. Composite PMI also came in higher at 51.00 from 50.70 prior; however, Services PMI was below expectation of 51.40 at 50.90. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $45 billion of 3-month bills and $42 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT), and St. Louis Fed President Bullard is scheduled to discuss economy and monetary policy at an Effingham Chamber of Commerce Luncheon in Illinois at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 4.32 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug -0.03 0.10 -0.36 -0.41  
                   
  09/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep P 50.40 51.00 50.30 -  
                   
  09/23 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep P 51.40 50.90 50.70 -  
                   
  09/23 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep P - 51.00 50.70 -  
                   
  09/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% - 0.04% -  
                   
  09/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 2.10% - 2.13% -  
                   
  09/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 1.00 - 1.00 -  
                   
  09/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Sep - - -0.10% -  
                   
  09/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 656k - 635k -  
                   
  09/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 3.20% - -12.80% -  
                   
  09/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 4.70% - 4.70% -  
                   
  09/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 2.40% - 2.40% -  
                   
  09/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  09/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Sep 211k - 208k -  
                   
  09/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Sep 1666k - 1661k -  
                   
  09/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Sep - - 62.70 -  
                   
  09/26 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 1.00% - -2.50% -  
                   
  09/26 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug 1.40% - 1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P -1.10% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.20% - -0.40% -  
                   
  09/27 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/27 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 1.40% - 1.40% -  
                   
  09/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 92.00 - 92.00 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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