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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-11 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-07 (-02)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, September 24, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are weaker across the curve this morning from Friday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.075% after closing at 3.064% prior.

Treasuries moved lower overnight with U.S. equity futures as the new round of tariffs between the U.S. and China went into effect at midnight. U.S. Stocks also saw a slight drop overnight after China cancelled its weekly trade discussions with White House Officials. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting kicks off tomorrow with its latest monetary policy decision due on Wednesday. While investors expect the third rate hike of 2018 to be announced on Wednesday, markets have also been increasingly pricing for a fourth hike in December. Fed President Powell will hold a press conference on Wednesday following the announcement of the Fed's latest decision.

On the economic calendar, we received the August Chicago Fed National Activity Index which came in slightly below expectations at 0.18 versus 0.20 per consensus; its previous level was revised higher from 0.13 to 0.18. Tomorrow we will receive the July FHFA House Price Index along with the July Case-Schiller reports and on Wednesday we will have the New Homes Sales reports for August. The calendar gets busier on Thursday with the August Trade Balance, third release of 2Q GDP estimates, and Pending Home Sales reports for August. Then on Friday, We will have the August Personal Income and Spending data together with the August PCE Deflator.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug 0.20 0.18 0.13 0.18  
                   
  09/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:00 Sep 31.00 - 30.90 -  
                   
  09/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% - 0.11% -  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 6.20% - 6.31% -  
                   
  09/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 20.00 - 24.00 -  
                   
  09/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Sep - - 1.60% -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 630k - 627k -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% - -1.70% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.25% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.00% - 1.75% -  
                   
  09/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 4.20% - 4.20% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P 1.90% - -1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Sep 210k - 201k -  
                   
  09/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Sep 1675k - 1645k -  
                   
  09/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Sep - - 60.20 -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug -0.50% - -0.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug -1.00% - -0.50% -  
                   
  09/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Sep 16.00 - 14.00 -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/28
 
 
 
 
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