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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-03 (-03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-02.5 (-02.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, September 25, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.099% after closing at 3.090% prior.

Treasuries resumed its downward trend overnight while U.S. stocks rebounded as investors continued to overlook trade and political concerns and regained the appetite for risk. Oil prices moved higher early into today’s session while the dollar edged lower as the 10-Year yield wavered around the 3.10% mark. The attention shifts on the Federal Reserve as the central bank’s two-day meeting begins today. Investors expect the third rate hike of 2018 to be announced by the Fed tomorrow, so the focus will primarily be on the dot plot and future projections. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), the U.S. will sell $38 Billion 5-Year Notes.

On the economic calendar, we received the July FHFA House Price Index which rose 0.20% MoM following an upwardly revised 0.30% increase prior. We also received the July Case-Schiller Home Composite Price Index which increased 0.09% MoM for a 5.92% rise YoY. Its previous mark was revised higher from 0.11% to 0.16% which brought up its YoY level from 6.31% to 6.36%. Moreover, we received the September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index which unexpectedly rose to 29.00 from 24.00 prior while consensus called for a drop back down to 20.00 MoM. Lastly, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence for the month of September rose to 138.40 from an upwardly revised 134.70 prior; consensus called for a slight drop of the index to 132.10.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.9 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug 0.20 0.18 0.13 0.18  
                   
  09/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:00 Sep 31.00 28.10 30.90 -  
                   
  09/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% 0.09% 0.11% 0.16%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 6.20% 5.92% 6.31% 6.36%  
                   
  09/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 20.00 29.00 24.00 -  
                   
  09/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Sep - - 1.60% -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 630k - 627k -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% - -1.70% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.25% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.00% - 1.75% -  
                   
  09/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 4.20% - 4.20% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P 1.90% - -1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Sep 210k - 201k -  
                   
  09/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Sep 1675k - 1645k -  
                   
  09/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Sep - - 60.20 -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug -0.50% - -0.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug -1.00% - -0.50% -  
                   
  09/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Sep 16.00 - 14.00 -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 2.20% - 2.30% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Aug 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 100.50 - 100.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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