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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-07.5 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-06.5 (+04)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.082% after closing at 3.097% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight and are marginally higher early into today’s session ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 11:00 AM (PT) as investors prepare for the outlook of the Fed dots and rate forecasts. With the third hike of 2018 already priced in, investors will try to gauge the language of the Fed’s Official Statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s tone in his press conference following the policy decision. There have been increased speculations that the Fed will bolster expectations for a fourth rate hike in December, and that it will continue its gradual policy tightening in 2019. Fed Chairman Powell is also expected to speak on the effect of the U.S. China trade war as he discusses the economic outlook.

On the economic calendar, we received the MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended September 21 which rose 2.90% following an increase of 1.60% in activities the week prior. Purchase applications were up 2.60% after rising just 0.30% the week prior, while refinancing applications increased 3.20% following a 3.70% increase the week prior. We also received the August New Home Sales reports which rose 3.50% MoM to 629k rate following a revised drop of 1.60% to 608k rate the month prior. Consensus called for the unit rate to increase to 630k MoM so the August data came in slightly lower than expected. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will sell $31 billion 7-Year Notes.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug 0.20 0.18 0.13 0.18  
                   
  09/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:00 Sep 31.00 28.10 30.90 -  
                   
  09/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% 0.09% 0.11% 0.16%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 6.20% 5.92% 6.31% 6.36%  
                   
  09/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 20.00 29.00 24.00 -  
                   
  09/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Sep - 2.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 630k 629k 627k 608k  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% 3.50% -1.70% -1.60%  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.25% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.00% - 1.75% -  
                   
  09/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 4.20% - 4.20% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P 2.00% - -1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Sep 210k - 201k -  
                   
  09/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Sep 1678k - 1645k -  
                   
  09/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Sep - - 60.20 -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug -0.50% - -0.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug -1.00% - -0.50% -  
                   
  09/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Sep 16.00 - 14.00 -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 2.20% - 2.30% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Aug 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 100.50 - 100.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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