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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-10.5 (+09.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-11.5 (+02)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.457%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 26, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Decline Amidst Impeachment Inquiry
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6801, 5.71 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.7372.

Optimism around trade talks with China was boosted after Trump said that a US-China trade deal could be settled sooner than expected. US stock index futures were higher after Trump’s comments, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all traded higher at the open. China is expected to increase its US soybean purchases during trade talks next month. Meanwhile, investors are monitoring the impeachment inquiry started at the House of Representatives, in relation to a call between Trump and the Ukrainian President. A redacted document released by the House Intelligence Committee detailed concerns that the president was “using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 US election”. A transcript of the call was released Wednesday, but did not appear to show any quid pro quo by Trump. However, more details of the phone conversation are pending to be released. House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, alleged there had been a “betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our national security, and betrayal of integrity of our elections”. The acting director of National Intelligence, Joseph Maguire, is set to testify before the House Intelligence Committee regarding this whistleblower complaint. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries fell four basis points to 1.70%. The US Treasury will offer $45 billion and $40 billion at its weekly auction of four-week and eight-week bills, respectively.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis issued a news release stating real Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 2.00% in the second quarter of 2019. In the first quarter, real Gross Domestic Product increased 3.10%. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $75.80 billion in the second quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $2.50 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $34.70 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits increased $38.70 billion. The US Department of Labor reported jobless claims rose to 213,000 in the week ending September 21st, while continuing claims fell and the insured jobless rate was 1.10%. State claims showed 40 states and territories reporting increased claims, while 13 reported lower filings for unemployment benefits. California and Georgia led states and territories with increased claims, while Arkansas and Illinois led those reporting fewer.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 5.71 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug -0.03 0.10 -0.36 -0.41  
                   
  09/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep P 50.40 51.00 50.30 -  
                   
  09/23 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep P 51.40 50.90 50.70 -  
                   
  09/23 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep P - 51.00 50.70 -  
                   
  09/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%  
                   
  09/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 2.10% 2.00% 2.13% 2.16%  
                   
  09/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 1.00 -9.00 1.00 -  
                   
  09/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Sep - -10.10% -0.10% -  
                   
  09/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 659k 713k 635k 666k  
                   
  09/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 3.80% 7.10% -12.80% -8.60%  
                   
  09/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 4.70% 4.60% 4.70% -  
                   
  09/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% -  
                   
  09/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 1.70% 1.90% 1.70% -  
                   
  09/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.10% 0.40% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  09/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Sep 212k 213k 208k 210k  
                   
  09/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Sep 1666k 1650k 1661k 1665k  
                   
  09/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Sep - - 62.70 -  
                   
  09/26 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 1.00% - -2.50% -  
                   
  09/26 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug 1.30% - 1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P -1.10% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.20% - -0.40% -  
                   
  09/27 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/27 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 1.40% - 1.40% -  
                   
  09/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 92.10 - 92.00 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
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