Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-14.5 (-02.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-11.5 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 27, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.066% after closing at 3.049% prior.

Treasuries moved lower overnight and erased some of yesterday’s gains as investors digested the Fed’s upbeat economic outlook which showed no signs of slowing its current path of gradual tightening. The Fed unanimously voted to raise interest rates for the third time in 2018 by a quarter of a point to 2-2.25% as expected, with the September Fed Dots reflecting 12 of 16 officials in favor of a fourth rate hike in December. Further, future projections now reflect three more rate hikes in 2019 and one additional in 2020. Elsewhere, geopolitical headlines and trade concerns continue to loom after President Trump accused China of attempting to interfere in U.S. congressional elections in November, while also seemingly downbeat about Nafta talks with Canada.

A heavy set of economic reports kicked off with the August Advance Goods Trade Balance which unexpectedly widened to $75.80 Billion deficit from $72.00 Billion revised prior. We also received the 3rd estimate of Q2 GDP growth which was unrevised at 4.20% to meet expectations. Personal Consumption and GDP Price Index also remained unchanged as expected at 3.80% and 3.00% respectively, while Core PCE showed a slight upward revision to 2.10% from 2.00% prior. Moreover, August Durable Goods Orders rose 4.50% in August after dropping 1.70% prior, while Durables excluding Transportation rose 0.10% following a revised 0.20% gain prior. Meanwhile, Capital Goods Orders nondefense ex-aircraft declined 0.50% after rising 1.50% revised prior; Capital Goods Shipments nondefense ex-aircraft rose 0.10% following a 1.10% revised increase prior. Lastly, we received the August Pending Home Sales reports which declined 1.80% MoM following a downwardly revised 0.80% decrease prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.7 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug 0.20 0.18 0.13 0.18  
                   
  09/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:00 Sep 31.00 28.10 30.90 -  
                   
  09/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% 0.09% 0.11% 0.16%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 6.20% 5.92% 6.31% 6.36%  
                   
  09/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 20.00 29.00 24.00 -  
                   
  09/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Sep - 2.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 630k 629k 627k 608k  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% 3.50% -1.70% -1.60%  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.25% 2.25% 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 1.75% -  
                   
  09/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.30% 0.80% 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P 2.00% 4.50% -1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  09/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Sep 210k 214k 201k 202k  
                   
  09/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Sep 1678k 1661k 1645k -  
                   
  09/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Sep - 61.20 60.20 -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug -0.50% -1.80% -0.70% -0.80%  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug -1.00% -2.50% -0.50% -0.70%  
                   
  09/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Sep 17.00 - 14.00 -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 2.20% - 2.30% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Aug 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  09/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 100.50 - 100.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved