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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-17.5 (+02.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-13.5 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.979%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, September 28, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.044% after closing at 3.053% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight while U.S. stocks declined on geopolitical headlines after Italy's populist government unveiled a larger than expected budget deficit than investors anticipated. Italian populists have gained the upper hand on spending to fulfill costly campaign promises but are potentially headed towards a collision course with the European Union. Elsewhere, investors are also keeping an eye on the developments of the political drama in Washington surrounding Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination. There are also two scheduled Fed speakers today including Richmond Fed President Barkin and New York Fed President Williams.

On the economic calendar, we received the August Personal Income which rose lower than expected at 0.30% versus 0.40% per consensus. Personal Spending came in as expected and gained 0.30% MoM following a 0.40% increase prior; Real Personal Spending rose 0.20% following a revised 0.30% increase prior. We also received the August PCE Deflator which rose 0.10% MoM as expected to bring its YoY level to 2.20% from 2.30% prior. PCE Core was unchanged at 0.00% MoM following an increase of 0.20% prior, while its YoY level remained at 2.00%. Lastly, we received the September University of Michigan Sentiment which dropped to 100.10 from 100.80 prior.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.9 bp from prior closing.

Have A Lovely Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Aug 0.20 0.18 0.13 0.18  
                   
  09/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:00 Sep 31.00 28.10 30.90 -  
                   
  09/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% 0.09% 0.11% 0.16%  
                   
  09/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 6.20% 5.92% 6.31% 6.36%  
                   
  09/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Sep 20.00 29.00 24.00 -  
                   
  09/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Sep - 2.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 630k 629k 627k 608k  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% 3.50% -1.70% -1.60%  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.25% 2.25% 2.00% -  
                   
  09/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 1.75% -  
                   
  09/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.30% 0.80% 0.60% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% -  
                   
  09/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% -  
                   
  09/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P 2.00% 4.50% -1.70% -  
                   
  09/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -  
                   
  09/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  09/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Sep 210k 214k 201k 202k  
                   
  09/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Sep 1678k 1661k 1645k -  
                   
  09/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Sep - 61.20 60.20 -  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug -0.50% -1.80% -0.70% -0.80%  
                   
  09/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Aug -1.00% -2.50% -0.50% -0.70%  
                   
  09/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Sep 17.00 13.00 14.00 -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% -  
                   
  09/28 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 2.20% 2.20% 2.30% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Aug 0.10% 0.00% 0.20% -  
                   
  09/28 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Aug 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  09/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 100.60 100.10 100.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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