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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-07 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-17 (-02.5)  
 
  Support   1.735%  
 
  Resistance   1.543%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, September 29, 2016
 
 
    The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.583% this morning after closing at 1.573% yesterday.
 
    This morning, the GDP data for the second quarter was released reflecting a 1.40% increase over the first quarter. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis the increase was primarily due to an increase in nonresidential fixed investments. Personal Consumption dropped slightly to 4.30% from 4.40% and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy, remained at 1.80%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Wholesale Inventories MoM fell by 0.10% from July.
 
    Initial Jobless Claims came in 6K better than consensus at 254K, however, rising by 2K from the prior week. Continuing Claims data came in at 2062K, a decline by 51K from the prior month and 67K better than expected. Consumer Comfort rose to 41.60. Levels improved in 3 of the 4 regions except for the West. Confidence improved among Americans earning less than $50K annually and was little changed for those making more.
 
    The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 1.0 bp up from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Aug 600K 609K 654K 659K  
                   
  09/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Aug -8.30% -7.60% 12.40% 13.80%  
                   
  09/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Sep -2.50 -3.70 -6.20 -  
                   
  09/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.00% -0.01% -0.07% -0.10%  
                   
  09/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 5.10% 5.02% 5.13% 5.11%  
                   
  09/27 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep P 51.20 51.90 51.00 -  
                   
  09/27 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep P - 52.00 51.50 -  
                   
  09/27 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Sep 99.00 104.10 101.10 101.80  
                   
  09/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Sep - -0.70% -7.30% -  
                   
  09/28 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Aug P -1.50% 0.00% 4.40% 3.60%  
                   
  09/28 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Aug P -0.50% -0.40% 1.30% 1.10%  
                   
  09/29 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Aug P 0.00% -0.10% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  09/29 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Sep 260K 254K 252K 251K  
                   
  09/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Sep 2129K 2062K 2113K 2108K  
                   
  09/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T 1.30% 1.40% 1.10% -  
                   
  09/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T 4.40% 4.30% 4.40% -  
                   
  09/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% -  
                   
  09/29 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% -  
                   
  09/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Sep - 41.60 41.30 -  
                   
  09/30 Personal Income 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  09/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.10% - 0.30% -  
                   
  09/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.00% -  
                   
  09/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 0.90% - 0.80% -  
                   
  09/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Aug 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  09/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Aug 1.70% - 1.60% -  
                   
  09/30 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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