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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-11 (-13)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-28.5 (-02)  
 
  Support   0.747%  
 
  Resistance   0.599%  
 
 
 
 
  Wednesday, September 30, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Rise As Hopes For an Economic Stimulus Plan Are Revived

 
 
Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.6824, 3.29 bps increased from prior closing of 0.6495.

US stocks opened higher this morning after an eventful first night of presidential debates. Hopes for a fiscal stimulus plan were revived following comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that a deal was close to being reached with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Elsewhere, Walt Disney Co. 's moved to layoff 28,000 workers as the pandemic continues to take its toll on the labor market. Crude Oil continued its decline towards $39 a barrel as Gold weakened by 0.3%. On the economic front, MBA Mortgage Applications fell by 4.80% for the week end September 25. Notably, refi's, FHA purchases, and VA refi's all fell by 6.50%, 2.00%, and 6.40%, respectively. Average 30 year fixed rate stood at 3.05%. ADP Employment Change and MNI Chicago PMI both painted an optimistic economic picture in the month of September as they reported an addition of 749,000 jobs and an increased index value of 62.40, respectively. Elsewhere, US GDP QoQ reported at -31.40% in the second quarter. Among the hardest hit sectors were leisure and hospitality, plummeting by an annualized 91.50% as an implication of COVID-19. Retail sales and housing were some of the few areas that surpassed pre-pandemic levels; however, the labor market still faces headwinds with forward-looking economic output remaining below pre-pandemic levels.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.29 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  09/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Sep 9.50 13.60 8.00 -  
                   
  09/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jul 0.10% 0.55% 0.00% -  
                   
  09/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jul 3.60% 3.95% 3.46% -  
                   
  09/29 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 07:00 Sep 90.00 101.80 84.80 86.30  
                   
  09/30 MBA Mortgage Applications  04:00 25 Sep - -4.80% 6.80%  -  
                   
  09/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q T -31.70% -31.40% -31.70% -  
                   
  09/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q T -34.10% -33.20% -34.10% -  
                   
  09/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q T -2.00% -1.80% -2.00% -  
                   
  09/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q T -1.00% -0.80% -1.00% -  
                   
  10/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Sep 850k - 870k -  
                   
  10/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Sep 12200k - 12580k -  
                   
  10/01 Personal Income 05:30 Aug -2.50% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Aug 0.80% - 1.90% -  
                   
  10/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Aug 0.30% - 0.30% -  
                   
  10/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Aug 1.20% - 1.00% -  
                   
  10/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 Sep - - 49.80 -  
                   
  10/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Aug F 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Aug F 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Sep F 79.00 - 78.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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