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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-10.5 (-02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-11 (00)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, October 01, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.077% after closing at 3.062% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight while U.S. stocks climbed after Canada agreed to join U.S. and Mexico in a new trade deal known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The deal was struck just before the Sunday midnight deadline to allow the three nations to sign the accord by late November, although the new deal will unlikely be voted on by the U.S. Congress until 2019. On the economic calendar, we received the September Markit US Manufacturing PMI which remained unchanged from prior at 55.60. We also received the August Construction Spending which rose 0.10% MoM following a revised 0.20% increase in July. Lastly, we received the September ISM Manufacturing Index which was slightly below expectations at 59.80 versus 60.00 per consensus, while the ISM Prices Paid Index came in at 66.90 versus 71.40 per consensus.

The remainder of this week’s calendar includes Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and Markit US Services and Composite PMI, Thursday’s Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders, and Friday’s employment reports for the month of September. This week is also packed with Fed speakers including appearances today by Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Boston Fed President Rosengren. Fed Chairman Powell is also scheduled to speak this week and will discuss the outlook for employment and inflation at a meeting of National Association for Business Economics in Boston tomorrow.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep F 55.60 55.60 55.60 -  
                   
  10/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Aug 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Sep 60.00 59.80 61.30 -  
                   
  10/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Sep 71.40 66.90 72.10 -  
                   
  10/02 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  10/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Sep - - 2.90% -  
                   
  10/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Sep 184k - 163k -  
                   
  10/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep F 53.00 - 52.90 -  
                   
  10/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep F - - 53.40 -  
                   
  10/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Sep - - 13.70% -  
                   
  10/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Sep 215k - 214k -  
                   
  10/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Sep 1665k - 1661k -  
                   
  10/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Sep - - 61.20 -  
                   
  10/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Aug 2.10% - -0.80% -  
                   
  10/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Aug F 4.50% - 4.50% -  
                   
  10/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Aug F - - 0.10% -  
                   
  10/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Aug -$53.50b - -$50.10b -  
                   
  10/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Sep 181k - 201k -  
                   
  10/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Sep 3.80% - 3.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Sep 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Sep 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Sep 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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