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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-17 (+10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-15 (+06)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, October 02, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are moderately higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.051% after closing at 3.085% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight on geopolitical turmoil including concerns over Italy’s fiscal position as tensions mounted that Italy’s budget could result in a debt crisis. The latest political developments in Italy regarding budget talks are also beginning to fuel fears of contagion spreading in Europe. Elsewhere, the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate as the latest North American accord is said to include certain provisions aimed to keep Chinese products out of the region. Along with the new trade deal with Canada and Mexico, President Trump has signed a trade agreement with South Korea, while bilateral economic negotiations have been initiated with Japan in an attempt to clear trade disputes with America’s other trading competitors. The dollar climbed with treasuries overnight, while U.S. stocks were lower at the start of today’s session versus prior.

Today we have a light economic calendar day with only the Wards Total Vehicles Sales for September which is expected to rise to $16.80 Million MoM from $16.60 Million in August. Meanwhile, there are several Fed speeches on deck today beginning with Fed Vice Chairman Quarles who is testifying to Senate Banking Committee regarding the implementation of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. Fed Chairman Powell will also speak today at the National Association for Business Economics in Boston to discuss the outlook for employment and inflation. Lastly, Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak in El Paso in a Q&A setting.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 3.4 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep F 55.60 55.60 55.60 -  
                   
  10/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Aug 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Sep 60.00 59.80 61.30 -  
                   
  10/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Sep 71.40 66.90 72.10 -  
                   
  10/02 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  10/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Sep - - 2.90% -  
                   
  10/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Sep 184k - 163k -  
                   
  10/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep F 53.00 - 52.90 -  
                   
  10/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep F - - 53.40 -  
                   
  10/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Sep - - 13.70% -  
                   
  10/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Sep 215k - 214k -  
                   
  10/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Sep 1665k - 1661k -  
                   
  10/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Sep - - 61.20 -  
                   
  10/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Aug 2.10% - -0.80% -  
                   
  10/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Aug F 4.50% - 4.50% -  
                   
  10/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Aug F - - 0.10% -  
                   
  10/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Aug -$53.50b - -$50.10b -  
                   
  10/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Sep 184k - 201k -  
                   
  10/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Sep 3.80% - 3.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Sep 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Sep 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Sep 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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