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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-29 (-04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-15 (-01)  
 
  Support   1.629%  
 
  Resistance   1.534%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, October 3, 2016
 
 
      The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.619% this morning after closing at 1.595% yesterday.
 
    Today, the seasonally adjusted Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered at 51.50, slightly above economist expectations of 51.40. This was a moderate upturn for both production volume and incoming new work which has led to an increase in the backlog of new orders. Construction Spending MoM fell for the second consecutive month to -0.70%, its lowest level in 8 months; the biggest drops are in state and local construction, down by 2.50% and public construction fell by 2.00% in August.
 
    The Institute of Supply Management Index (ISM) rose to 51.50 in September, a 2.10 increase from August. According to the IHS, this growth is largely driven by consumer demand, enhanced by low interest rates, low inflation and a more stable labor market. ISM Prices Paid came in at 53.00, unchanged from previous and ISM New Orders increased to 55.10 from 49.10 prior.
 
      The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year 2.4 bps up from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/03 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep F 51.40 51.50 51.40 -  
                   
  10/03 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Aug 0.30% -0.70% 0.00% -0.30%  
                   
  10/03 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Sep 50.40 51.50 49.40 -  
                   
  10/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Sep 53.50 53.00 53.00 -  
                   
  10/04 ISM New York 06:45 Sep - - 47.50 -  
                   
  10/05 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 30 Sep - - -0.70% -  
                   
  10/05 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Sep 165K - 177K -  
                   
  10/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep F 51.90 - 51.90 -  
                   
  10/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep F - - 52.00 -  
                   
  10/05 Factory Orders 07:00 Aug -0.20% - 1.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Aug F 0.00% -   0.00% -  
                   
  10/05 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Aug F - - -0.40% -  
                   
  10/06 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Sep - - -21.80% -  
                   
  10/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 1 Oct 255K - 254K -  
                   
  10/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 24 Sep - - 2062K -  
                   
  10/06 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 2 Oct - - 41.60 -  
                   
  10/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Sep 170K - 151K -  
                   
  10/07 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Sep 4.90% - 4.90% -  
                   
  10/07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Sep 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  10/07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Sep 2.60% - 2.40% -  
                   
  10/07 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Sep - - 9.70% -  
                   
  10/07 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Aug F -0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  10/07 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Aug - - -0.40% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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