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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-04 (-08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-10.5 (-08)  
 
  Support   3.207%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, October 05, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.207% after closing at 3.188% prior.

Treasuries resumed its downward trend while U.S. stock futures fluctuated after the latest jobs report reflected a tightening labor market to support the hawkish tone of the Fed on the U.S. economy. While U.S. hiring slowed in September, which was likely influenced by Hurricane Florence, the August nonfarm payrolls were revised higher from 201k to 270k. September reports showed that 134k jobs were added for the month while consensus called for an increase of 185k. Private payrolls also came in lower than expected and reported an increase of 121k versus 180k per consensus, while the August data was revised higher from 204k to 254k. Meanwhile, manufacturing payrolls rose 18k in September following an upwardly revised 5k increase in August.

The Unemployment Rate dipped to its lowest level in 48 years as the jobless rate fell to 3.70% from 3.90% prior; underemployment rose from 7.40% to 7.50% in September, while the overall labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.70% MoM as expected. The earnings reports also reflected solid data in September as the Average Hourly Earnings matched expectations and were up 0.30% for the month following a downwardly revised 0.30% gain in August; Hourly Earnings YoY were up 2.80% and also met expectations. We also received the August Trade Balance which showed that the goods and services deficit widened to $53.20 Billion for the month following a slightly revised $50.00 billion deficit prior. Later today at 12:00 PM (PT), the August Consumer Credit will be available and is expected to dip down to $15.000 Billion from $16.640 Billion prior.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.9 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep F 55.60 55.60 55.60 -  
                   
  10/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Aug 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Sep 60.00 59.80 61.30 -  
                   
  10/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Sep 71.40 66.90 72.10 -  
                   
  10/02 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  10/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Sep - 0.03% 2.90% -  
                   
  10/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Sep 184k 230k 163k 168k  
                   
  10/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep F 53.00 53.50 52.90 -  
                   
  10/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep F - 53.90 53.40 -  
                   
  10/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Sep - 70.90% 13.70% -  
                   
  10/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Sep 215k 207k 214k 215k  
                   
  10/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Sep 1665k 1650k 1661k 1663k  
                   
  10/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Sep - 61.60 61.20 -  
                   
  10/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Aug 2.10% 2.30% -0.80% -0.50%  
                   
  10/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Aug F 4.50% 4.40% 4.50% -  
                   
  10/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Aug F - 0.00% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Aug -$53.60b -$53.20b -$50.10b -$50.00b  
                   
  10/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Sep 185k 134k 201k 270k  
                   
  10/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Sep 3.80% 3.70% 3.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Sep 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  10/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Sep 2.80% 2.80% 2.90% -  
                   
  10/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Sep 62.70% 62.70% 62.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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