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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-28.5 (-08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-27 (-05)  
 
  Support   2.397%  
 
  Resistance   2.016%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, October 06, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.371% after closing at 2.349% prior.

The impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma significantly affected the September Nonfarm Payrolls which came in well below expectations as U.S. payrolls fell 33k while consensus called for an 80k increase. The Change in Private Payrolls fell 40k following a slightly revised 164k gain in August, and the Change in Manufacturing Payrolls dropped 1k following an upwardly revised 41k gain prior. The Hurricanes also impacted the surge of the Average Hourly Earnings, particularly due to utility-worker overtime pay, as earnings rose 0.50% MoM following an upwardly revised 0.20% rise prior.

The Unemployment Rate fell from 4.40% in August to 4.20% in September as more people reported as being in the labor force and as being employed, pushing the Labor Force Participation Rate up to 63.10% form 62.90% prior. The Underemployment Rate decreased down to 8.30% from 8.60% in August. Lastly, we received the Wholesale Inventories for August, which came in slightly below expectations, rising 0.90% versus an increase of 1.00% per consensus; Wholesale Trade Sales rose 1.70% following a 0.10% drop prior.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year up 2.2 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Sep F 53.00 53.10 53.00 -  
                   
  10/02 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Sep 58.10 60.80 58.80 -  
                   
  10/02 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Sep 63.00 71.50 62.00 -  
                   
  10/02 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.40% 0.50% -0.60% -1.20%  
                   
  10/03 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  10/04 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Sep - -0.40% -0.50% -  
                   
  10/04 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Sep 135k 135k 237k 228k  
                   
  10/04 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Sep F 55.10 55.30 55.10 -  
                   
  10/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Sep F - 54.80 54.60 -  
                   
  10/05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Sep - -27.00% 5.10% -  
                   
  10/05 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Sep 265k 260k 272k -  
                   
  10/05 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Sep 1950k 1938k 1934k 1936k  
                   
  10/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Aug -$42.70b -$42.40b -$43.70b -$43.60b  
                   
  10/05 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 1 Oct - 49.90 51.60 -  
                   
  10/05 Factory Orders 07:00 Aug 1.00% 1.20% -3.30% -  
                   
  10/05 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Aug F 1.70% 2.00% 1.70% -  
                   
  10/05 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Aug F - 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Sep 80k -33k 156k 169k  
                   
  10/06 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Sep 4.40% 4.20% 4.40% -  
                   
  10/06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Sep 0.30% 0.50% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Sep 2.60% 2.90% 2.50% 2.70%  
                   
  10/06 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Sep 62.90% 63.10% 62.90% -  
                   
  10/06 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Sep - 8.30% 8.60% -  
                   
  10/06 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.00% 1.70% -0.10% -  
                   
  10/06 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Aug F 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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