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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-03.5 (-03.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-10 (-03)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.833%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.215% after closing at 3.207% prior.

Treasuries lowered overnight as the downward trend resumed ahead of the latest producer price data. Producer prices rose 0.20% as expected in September following an unrevised 0.10% drop prior. PPI Final Demand YoY came in slightly below expectations at 2.60% while consensus called for a 2.70% showing; its prior mark remained unchanged at 2.80%. PPI excluding food and energy also rose as expected at a 0.20% rate following a 0.10% decline in August, bringing its YoY level up to 2.50% from 2.30% prior. Excluding food, energy and trade services, producer prices rose 0.40% MoM following a 0.10% increase in August while its YoY level remained unchanged at 2.90% from prior. Treasuries edged lower after the release of the overall solid PPI data but have erased most of the early losses since; U.S. stocks remain lower this morning after declining overnight.

We also received the final release of the August Wholesale Inventories print which rose 1.00% to exceed expectations as consensus called for a 0.80% gain. Wholesale Trade Sales rose 0.80% following an upwardly revised 0.20% gain prior. MBA Mortgage Applications index fell 1.70% for the week ended October 5 as mortgage applications declined for the first week since September 7. Purchase applications were down 1.10% after rising 0.10% the week prior, while refinancing activities fell 2.60% after dropping 0.10% the week prior. Still ahead later today, U.S. will sell $23 Billion 10-Year Notes reopening at 10:00 AM (PT). In Fedspeak, Chicago Fed President Evans will speak on the economy and monetary policy this morning, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic discusses the economic outlook later this afternoon.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.8 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/08 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  10/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Sep 108.30 107.90 108.80 -  
                   
  10/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Oct - -1.70% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/10 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% 0.20% -0.10% -  
                   
  10/10 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Sep 2.70% 2.60% 2.80% -  
                   
  10/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Aug F 0.80% 1.00% 0.80% -  
                   
  10/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% 0.80% 0.00% 0.20%  
                   
  10/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  10/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Sep 2.40% - 2.70% -  
                   
  10/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Oct 209k - 207k -  
                   
  10/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 29 Sep 1660k - 1650k -  
                   
  10/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 7 Oct - - 61.60 -  
                   
  10/11 Monthly Budget Statement - Sep $81.50b - $7.90b -  
                   
  10/12 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% - -0.60% -  
                   
  10/12 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Sep 3.10% - 3.70% -  
                   
  10/12 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% - -0.10% -  
                   
  10/12 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Sep - - 3.60% -  
                   
  10/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Oct P 100.50 - 100.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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