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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-29.5 (-13.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-19.5 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.442%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, October 10, 2019
 
 
Treasuries Steady Overnight Ahead of U.S.-China Trade Talks
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries relatively flat from prior close. The 10-Year treasury yield is currently at 1.619 after closing at 1.585 prior.

Treasury yields held ground overnight while U.S. equity futures fluctuated ahead of the scheduled meeting in Washington between U.S. and China senior officials Thursday and Friday. Contrasting reports on the trade negotiations spurred volatile trading in Asia and Europe. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index drifted lower as investors digested a slew of headlines including reports that the two-day meeting may be cut short. Speculations are pointing toward a partial trade deal, which could include a previously negotiated currency pact that was reportedly agreed upon earlier this year prior to the trade talks breaking down. A Chinese official said Wednesday that an interim deal with the U.S. is still at reach, but is contingent on the Trump Administration’s willingness to halt further tariffs, which is scheduled to raise duties to 30% from 25% on $250 billion Chinese imports effective October 15th.

On the economic calendar, we received the Consumer Price Index for the month of September, which was unchanged month-over-month following a 0.10% increase prior. Core prices rose below expectations at 0.10% MoM versus a 0.20% increase per consensus; its prior increase of 0.30% in August was unrevised. CPI rose 1.70% year-over-year, while core prices rose 2.40% YoY as expected. The dollar weakened overnight and remained lower as consumer prices rose less than expected in September. Also on the calendar, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 5th fell 10k to 210k from a slightly revised 220k prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended September 28th rose 29k to 1684k from an upwardly revised 1655k prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), US will sell $16 billion 30-Year Bonds Reopening.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.4 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/07 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Sep $96.50b - $119.10b -  
                   
  10/07 Consumer Credit 12:00 Aug $15.000b $17.901b $23.294b $23.046b  
                   
  10/08 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Sep 102.00 101.80 103.10 -  
                   
  10/08 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% -0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/08 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Sep 1.80% 1.40% 1.80% -  
                   
  10/09 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 4 Oct - 5.20% 8.10% -  
                   
  10/09 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Aug 7250 7051 7217 7174  
                   
  10/09 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Aug - 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  10/09 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Aug F 0.40% 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  10/09 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 18 Sep - - - -  
                   
  10/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Sep 1.80% 1.70% 1.70%    
                   
  10/10 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 5 Oct 220k 210k 219k 220k  
                   
  10/10 Continuing Claims 05:30 28 Oct 1651k 1684k 1651k 1655k  
                   
  10/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 6 Oct - - 62.00 -  
                   
  10/11 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Sep 0.00% - -0.50% -  
                   
  10/11 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Sep -2.10% - -2.00% -  
                   
  10/11 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Sep -0.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  10/11 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Sep - - -1.40% -  
                   
  10/11 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Oct P 92.00 - 93.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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