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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-12.5 (-03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-15 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.833%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, October 11, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.179% after closing at 3.164% prior.

Treasuries lowered overnight and into the open and erased some of yesterday’s late session gains while investors awaited the latest U.S. inflation data. Treasuries pared the early session lows after the U.S. headline and core CPI figures came in weaker than expected for September. Headline CPI was up 0.10% for the month while consensus called for a 0.20% increase; the August data remained unchanged at a gain of 0.20%. Core CPI also came in below expectations and rose just 0.10% in September versus an expected 0.20% increase per consensus; the August data remained unchanged at a gain of 0.10%. Headline CPI YoY rate fell from 2.70% to 2.30% while core CPI YoY rate remained unchanged at 2.20%. U.S. stocks extended losses on the weak inflation data after selling off during yesterday’s session.

Also on today’s calendar, we received the Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY print for September which rose to 1.10% from 0.50% prior; Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY rose to 0.50% from 0.20% prior. We also received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 6 which rose 7k to 214k from an unrevised 207k reporting the week prior. Consensus called the claims to remain unchanged from prior so this week’s claims came in slightly above expectations. Continuing Claims for the week ended September 29 rose to 1660k as expected following an upwardly revised 1656k the week prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will sell $15 Billion 30-Year Bonds Reopening. Lastly, Kansas City Fed President George will speak later today at an economic forum in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/08 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  10/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Sep 108.30 107.90 108.80 -  
                   
  10/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Oct - -1.70% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/10 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% 0.20% -0.10% -  
                   
  10/10 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Sep 2.70% 2.60% 2.80% -  
                   
  10/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Aug F 0.80% 1.00% 0.80% -  
                   
  10/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Aug 0.50% 0.80% 0.00% 0.20%  
                   
  10/11 CPI MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/11 CPI YoY 05:30 Sep 2.40% 2.30% 2.70% -  
                   
  10/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Oct 207k 214k 207k -  
                   
  10/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 29 Sep 1660k 1660k 1650k 1656k  
                   
  10/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 7 Oct - 59.50 61.60 -  
                   
  10/11 Monthly Budget Statement - Sep $75.00b - $7.90b -  
                   
  10/12 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% - -0.60% -  
                   
  10/12 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Sep 3.10% - 3.70% -  
                   
  10/12 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Sep 0.20% - -0.10% -  
                   
  10/12 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Sep 2.90% - 3.60% -  
                   
  10/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Oct P 100.50 - 100.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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