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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-22 (+04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-17.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.855%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, October 15, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.143% after closing at 3.162% prior.

Treasuries were steady overnight and into the open ahead of the Retail Sales reports for September. The Retail Sales Advance disappointed expectations as it rose just 0.10% in September while market consensus was for a 0.60% increase in overall retail sales. Excluding auto, Retail Sales fell 0.10% MoM following a downwardly revised 0.20% rise in August. Retail Sales excluding auto and gas was unchanged at 0.00% versus an expected 0.30% increase per consensus, and Retail Sales control group rose 0.50% versus an expected 0.40% gain per consensus. Also released this morning, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose more than expected from 19.00 in September to 21.10 in October; consensus called for the index to rise to 20.00. Lastly, we received the Business Inventories print for August which came in line with expectations and rose 0.50% MoM following an upwardly revised gain of 0.70% prior.

The remainder of this week’s calendar mainly consists of housing reports. On Tuesday, we will receive the October NAHB Housing Market Index, the September Industrial Production report and the September Capacity Utilization print. On Wednesday, we will have the September Housing Starts and Building Permits along with the FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting. Then on Thursday, we will receive the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for October and the Leading Index for September. Lastly, we will receive the September Existing Home Sales reports on Friday. Several Fed Officials will speak this week including San Francisco Fed President Daly, Fed Governor Brainard, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, Fed Vice Chairman Quarles, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.9 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Sep 0.60% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Oct 20.00 21.10 19.00 -  
                   
  10/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Aug 0.50% 0.50% 0.60% 0.70%  
                   
  10/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Sep 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Sep 78.20% - 78.10% -  
                   
  10/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Oct 67.00 - 67.00 -  
                   
  10/16 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Aug 6900 - 6939 -  
                   
  10/16 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Aug $60.30b - $52.20b -  
                   
  10/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Aug - - $74.80b -  
                   
  10/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Oct - - -1.70% -  
                   
  10/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Sep 1210k - 1282k -  
                   
  10/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Sep -5.60% - 9.20% -  
                   
  10/17 Building Permits 05:30 Sep 1274k - 1229k 1249k  
                   
  10/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Sep 2.00% - -5.70% -4.10%  
                   
  10/17 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 26 Sep - - - -  
                   
  10/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Oct 20.00 - 22.90 -  
                   
  10/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Oct 210k - 214k -  
                   
  10/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Oct 1665k - 1660k -  
                   
  10/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Oct - - 59.50 -  
                   
  10/18 Leading Index 07:00 Sep 0.50% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/19 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Sep 5.29m - 5.34m -  
                   
  10/19 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep -0.90% - 0.00% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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