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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-22.5 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-19.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.871%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.153% after closing at 3.164% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight despite more solid corporate earnings results from Netflix Inc. as investors continued to digest better than expected results in the early rounds of earnings season. Treasuries saw a slight surge early in the session after the release of weaker than expected housing data that halted gains in U.S. stocks. Housing Starts fell 5.30% in September to a 1210k unit rate from a downwardly revised 1268k unit rate in August. The decline was largely driven by the southern states where Hurricane Florence made a landfall. Moreover, Building Permits dropped 0.60% in September to a 1241k unit rate from an upwardly revised 1249k unit rate in August; market consensus called for a 2.00% gain in September. The dollar rose with treasuries on the housing data while stocks declined.

Also received, the MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended October 12 fell 7.10% after showing a slight decline of 1.70% the week prior. Purchase applications were down 5.90% following a drop of 1.10% the week prior, while refinancing activities dropped 9.00% after falling 2.60% the week prior. The focus shifts back on the Fed as the latest FOMC Minutes from the September meeting is scheduled to be released later today at 11:00 AM (PT). Investors will look for further clues of the Fed’s outlook for policy tightening heading into the December FOMC meeting. In Fedspeak, Fed Governor Brainard is on deck today to speak on Fintech and Financial Inclusions at 9:10 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Sep 0.60% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Oct 20.00 21.10 19.00 -  
                   
  10/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Aug 0.50% 0.50% 0.60% 0.70%  
                   
  10/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Sep 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  10/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Sep 78.20% 78.10% 78.10% -  
                   
  10/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Oct 66.00 68.00 67.00 -  
                   
  10/16 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Aug 6900 7136 6939 7077  
                   
  10/16 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Aug $60.30b $108.20b $52.20b $42.70b  
                   
  10/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Aug - $131.80b $74.80b $66.70b  
                   
  10/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Oct - -7.10% -1.70% -  
                   
  10/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Sep 1210k 1201k 1282k 1268k  
                   
  10/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Sep -5.60% -5.30% 9.20% 7.10%  
                   
  10/17 Building Permits 05:30 Sep 1275k 1241k 1229k 1249k  
                   
  10/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Sep 2.00% -0.60% -5.70% -4.10%  
                   
  10/17 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 26 Sep - - - -  
                   
  10/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Oct 20.00 - 22.90 -  
                   
  10/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Oct 211k - 214k -  
                   
  10/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Oct 1665k - 1660k -  
                   
  10/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Oct - - 59.50 -  
                   
  10/18 Leading Index 07:00 Sep 0.50% - 0.40% -  
                   
  10/19 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Sep 5.29m - 5.34m -  
                   
  10/19 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep -0.90% - 0.00% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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