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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-11 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-07.5 (00)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.933%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, October 22, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from Friday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.184% after closing at 3.193% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight and into the open ahead of a busy calendar week that includes U.S. bill auctions, a handful of Fed speakers, and key earnings results from notable companies including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Twitter. U.S. will sell a combined $108 Billion of 2-Year, 5-Year and 7-Year Notes between Tuesday and Thursday. In Fedspeak, Fed Presidents Kashkari of Minneapolis, Bostic of Atlanta, Kaplan of Dallas, and George of Kansas City will all make an appearance on Tuesday, while Fed’s Brainard and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak on Wednesday; the latest Fed Beige Book will also be available on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the broader U.S. equity market was relatively unchanged while the dollar rose as investors continue to digest geopolitical developments in Italy’s budget crisis, Brexit negotiations, and continuing U.S.-China trade rhetoric.

On the economic calendar, we only received the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the month of September which came in below expectations at 0.17 versus 0.21 per market consensus; its prior reading of 0.18 was revised higher to 0.27. This week’s economic calendar is fairly quiet to start the week which includes Tuesday’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October and the August FHFA House Price Index and September New Home Sales data on Wednesday. The later part gets busier with September Wholesale and Retail Inventories, September Durable Goods and Capital Goods Orders, and September Pending Home Sales. To conclude the week, we will receive the advance reading of the 3Q GDP reports and the final reading of the University of Michigan Sentiment for October.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.9 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Sep 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.27  
                   
  10/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Oct 24.00 - 29.00 -  
                   
  10/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19 Oct - - -7.10% -  
                   
  10/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Aug 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct P 55.30 - 55.60 -  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct P 54.00 - 53.50 -  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct P - - 53.90 -  
                   
  10/24 New Home Sales 07:00 Sep 625k - 629k -  
                   
  10/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep -0.60% - 3.50% -  
                   
  10/24 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  10/25 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Sep P 0.50% - 1.00% -  
                   
  10/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Sep P -1.50% - 4.40% -  
                   
  10/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Sep P 0.40% - 0.00% -  
                   
  10/25 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20 Oct 213k - 210k -  
                   
  10/25 Continuing Claims 05:30 13 Oct 1652k - 1640k -  
                   
  10/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 21 Oct - - 60.80 -  
                   
  10/25 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep 0.00% - -1.80% -  
                   
  10/25 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Sep -1.90% - -2.50% -  
                   
  10/25 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Oct 14.00 - 13.00 -  
                   
  10/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q A 3.40% - 4.20% -  
                   
  10/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q A 3.30% - 3.80% -  
                   
  10/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q A 2.10% - 3.00% -  
                   
  10/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q A 1.70% - 2.10% -  
                   
  10/26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Oct F 99.00 - 99.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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