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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


Thursday
October 23, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   101-00.5 (-08.5)
2.259%
FN 3.5% COUPON   103-17.5 (-05.5)
SUPPORT   2.400%
RESISTANCE   2.190%
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Initial Jobless Claims rose to 283K vs. 264K prior (consensus 281K) with Continuing Claims falling to 2351K vs. 2389K prior (consensus 2380K). This is the lowest Continuing Claims level since 2000, and could be signs of an improving labor market conditions. The FHFA house price index edged up with a +0.1% rise in July, following a +0.3% advance the month prior. The FHFA Index for August defeated consensus for a +0.3% increase, coming in at +0.5% and the prior month’s number revised up to +0.2%. The Leading Index rose +0.2% in August following an upwardly revised gain of +1.1% in July. For September consensus for the Leading Index is for a +0.7% boost. Treasuries declined this morning, pushing 5-Year yields to the highest levels in a week in reaction to the substantial decline in Continuing Claims. The curve has bear steepened with 2s10s up +0.6 bps and MBS production coupons are following technicals (underperform in a selloff) as they have widened 1 tick to treasury hedges.

This Week's Events:

DATE EVENTS TIME (PDT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
10/23 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 October 18 281K 283K 264K 266K
10/23 Continuing Claims 05:30 October 11 2380K 2351K 2389K -
10/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 August 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
10/23 Leading Index 07:00 September 0.7% - 0.2% -
10/23 Kansas City Fed 08:00 October 6 - 6 -
10/24 New Home Sales 07:00 September 470K - 504K -
10/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 September -6.8% - 18.0% -

 

 

 
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