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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-10 (+13.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-27 (+07.5)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.979%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, October 26, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.073% after closing at 3.118% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight and opened stronger as the sell-off in global equities resumed following the downbeat earnings results posted by Amazon and Alphabet after yesterday’s close. U.S. stocks fell sharply after rallying throughout yesterday’s session as the disappointing earnings added to this week’s market volatility. The risk-off mood pushed the dollar higher with treasuries, while oil prices fell again after gaining in back to back sessions. Global markets remain on edge as investors grapple with corporate earnings season, looming trade tensions, and the Fed’s hawkishness to continue tightening its monetary policy.

On the economic calendar, we received a solid first estimate of Q3 GDP which reported the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.50% pace to beat expectations as market consensus called for a 3.30% gain; its prior mark remained unchanged at a 4.20% increase. Personal Consumption also came in better than expected and rose 4.00% versus an expected 3.30% increase following an unchanged 3.80% gain prior. GDP Price Index rose 1.70% after rising 3.00% in the prior quarter, while the Core PCE rose 1.60% after rising 2.10% prior. GDP YoY level is now up 3.00% compared to 2.90% in Q2 and 2.30% in Q3 the year prior, reflecting that the economy has gained momentum over the last year. Lastly, we received the final reading of the October University of Michigan Sentiment which came in slightly lower than expected at 98.60 as the sentiment ticked down from 99.00 prior.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield down 4.5 bps from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Sep 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.27  
                   
  10/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Oct 24.00 15.00 29.00 -  
                   
  10/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19 Oct - 4.90% -7.10% -  
                   
  10/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Aug 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 0.40%  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct P 55.30 55.90 55.60 -  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct P 54.00 54.70 53.50 -  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct P - 54.80 53.90 -  
                   
  10/24 New Home Sales 07:00 Sep 625k 553k 629k 585k  
                   
  10/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep -0.60% -5.50% 3.50% -3.00%  
                   
  10/24 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  10/25 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Sep P 0.50% 0.30% 1.00% 0.90%  
                   
  10/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Sep P -1.50% 0.80% 4.40% 4.60%  
                   
  10/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Sep P 0.40% 0.10% 0.00% 0.30%  
                   
  10/25 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20 Oct 215k 215k 210k -  
                   
  10/25 Continuing Claims 05:30 13 Oct 1644k 1636k 1640k 1641k  
                   
  10/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 21 Oct - 60.10 60.80 -  
                   
  10/25 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep 0.00% 0.50% -1.80% -1.90%  
                   
  10/25 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Sep -2.60% -3.40% -2.50% -2.60%  
                   
  10/25 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Oct 14.00 8.00 13.00 -  
                   
  10/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q A 3.30% 3.50% 4.20% -  
                   
  10/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q A 3.30% 4.00% 3.80% -  
                   
  10/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q A 2.10% 1.70% 3.00% -  
                   
  10/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q A 1.80% 1.60% 2.10% -  
                   
  10/26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Oct F 99.00 98.60 99.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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