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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-27 (-03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-30.5 (00)  
 
  Support   1.872%  
 
  Resistance   1.724%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, October 28, 2016
 
 

    The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.852% this morning after closing at 1.854% yesterday.

   Treasury yields are roughly unchanged this morning with 2-Year and 5-Year yields 1 bp lower and the 10-Year 0.2 bp lower. This morning 3rd quarter advanced GDP was released and it surprised to the upside at 2.90% vs. 2.60% expected, Personal Consumption was lower at 2.10% vs. 2.60% expected and Employment Cost Index was in line at 0.60% vs. 0.60% expected. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 87.20 vs. 88.20. According to market participants, these data points support the Fed's current projections and should lead to a rate hike in December. 

    Next Monday we have Personal Income and Spending, Chicago Purchasing Manager and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity. On Tuesday, US manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing will be released. Wednesday has Mortgage Applications and ADP as well as the November FOMC. There is very little chance the Fed will raise rates ahead of the presidential election on November 8th

    The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year 0.2 bp down from prior closing.

    Have A Great Weekend!

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Sep -0.13 -0.14 -0.55 -0.72  
                   
  10/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct P 51.50 53.20 51.50 -  
                   
  10/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Aug 0.40% 0.70% 0.50% -  
                   
  10/25 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Oct 101.50 98.60 104.10 103.50  
                   
  10/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Oct -4.00 -4.00 -8.00 -  
                   
  10/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Oct - -4.10% 0.60% -  
                   
  10/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Sep P 0.10% 0.20% -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  10/26 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct P 52.50 54.80 52.30 -  
                   
  10/26 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct P - 54.90 52.30 -  
                   
  10/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Sep 600K 593K 609K 575K  
                   
  10/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep -1.50% 3.10% -7.60% -8.60%  
                   
  10/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Sep P 0.00% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%  
                   
  10/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Sep P 0.20% 0.20% -0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  10/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Oct 256K 258K 260K 261K  
                   
  10/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Oct 2052K 2039K 2057K 2054K  
                   
  10/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Oct - 43.90 41.30 -  
                   
  10/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Oct 3.00 - 6.00 -  
                   
  10/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q A 2.60% 2.90% 1.40% -  
                   
  10/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q A 2.60% 2.10% 4.30% -  
                   
  10/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q A 1.40% 1.50% 2.30% -  
                   
  10/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q A 1.60% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  10/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Oct F 88.20 87.20 87.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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