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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-01 (-08.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-20.5 (-04)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   2.979%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, October 29, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.110% after closing at 3.076% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight and opened lower this morning as U.S. stocks rebounded after a tumultuous week on headlines surrounding German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s future. After nearly two decades as head of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, Chancellor Merkel confirmed reports that she will step down and exit politics at the end of her term in 2021; U.S. equity futures rose with European stocks on the news as risk-on mood gained some momentum. Elsewhere, earnings season continues this week with results from Facebook, Apple, Exxon Mobil and GE. Also due later this week are the latest monetary policy decisions announcements from Bank of Japan and Bank of England.

This week’s economic calendar kicked off with the September Personal Income which rose 0.20% following an upwardly revised gain of 0.40% prior; Personal Spending rose as expected at 0.40% after a revised gain of 0.50% prior. Also on tap, we received the September PCE Inflation which rose 0.10% MoM to bring its YoY level to 2.00% from 2.20% prior. Headline PCE rose 0.20% from an unchanged 0.00% prior to bring its YoY level steady at 2.00% as expected. The remainder of this week’s calendar features Tuesday’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller for August and the October Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change for October along with the 3Q Employment Cost Index, Thursday’s ISM reports for October and the Wards Total Vehicle Sales, and Friday’s employment reports for the month of October.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.4 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/29 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  10/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  10/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Oct 28.10 - 28.10 -  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug 0.10% - 0.09% -  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 5.80% - 5.92% -  
                   
  10/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Oct - - 4.90% -  
                   
  10/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 189k - 230k -  
                   
  11/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - - 70.90% -  
                   
  11/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% - 2.90% -  
                   
  11/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q P 1.10% - -1.00% -  
                   
  11/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Oct 213k - 215k -  
                   
  11/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Oct 1639k - 1636k -  
                   
  11/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Oct - - 60.10 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 55.80 - 55.90 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 59.00 - 59.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct - - 66.90 -  
                   
  11/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$53.60b - -$53.20b -  
                   
  11/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 193k - 134k -  
                   
  11/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 3.20% - 2.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 0.50% - 2.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - - 0.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - - 0.10% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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