Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-02 (-04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-17.5 (-03)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   3.028%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.109% after closing at 3.086% prior.

Treasuries slid overnight and opened lower to start the session after President Trump predicted that a “great deal” on trade with China is forthcoming. Trump’s comments were made after yesterday’s headlines that the White House is preparing to impose additional tariffs on more Chinese goods should the two nations fail to make any progress when they meet in November. Treasuries saw a rally late in yesterday’s session on the tariffs expansion news, but those gains were reversed as risk sentiment faded on Trump’s comments about a possible trade deal with China. Investors will remain attentive of U.S.-China trade talks in the upcoming weeks leading up to Presidents Trump and Xi’s scheduled meeting at the G-20 summit next month. Elsewhere, mixed corporate earnings results saw both gains and losses in U.S. stocks as investors remain on edge; earnings season continues including results from Facebook later at close.

On the economic calendar, we received the Case-Shiller Home Prices for the month of August which reported a 0.09% MoM increase following a downwardly revised 0.07% gain prior; the price data was slightly weaker than expected as consensus called for a 0.10% increase. Moreover, Case-Shiller YoY prices rose 5.49% in August after rising 5.90% YoY in July. Home price gains in August showed the slowest pace since 2016 as high borrowing costs and property values have limited buyer interest, pointing to signs that the housing market is cooling. Also received, the October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to an 18-year high 137.90 from a downwardly revised 135.30 level prior; consensus called for a 135.90 reading so the index accelerated more than expected.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/29 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  10/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  10/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Oct 28.10 29.40 28.10 -  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.07%  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 5.80% 5.49% 5.92% 5.90%  
                   
  10/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Oct - - 4.90% -  
                   
  10/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 187k - 230k -  
                   
  11/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - - 70.90% -  
                   
  11/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% - 2.90% -  
                   
  11/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q P 1.10% - -1.00% -  
                   
  11/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Oct 213k - 215k -  
                   
  11/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Oct 1639k - 1636k -  
                   
  11/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Oct - - 60.10 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 55.80 - 55.90 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 59.00 - 59.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct - - 66.90 -  
                   
  11/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$53.60b - -$53.20b -  
                   
  11/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 193k - 134k -  
                   
  11/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 3.20% - 2.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 0.50% - 2.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - - 0.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - - 0.10% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved