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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-30 (-0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-26 (00)  
 
  Support   2.472%  
 
  Resistance   2.213%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.371% after closing at 2.369% during the prior session.

Today's session opened with mild expectations that the FOMC is likely to announce a continuance in gradual but steady rate hikes in the near future; and the markets coupling with the potential repercussions of further indictments associated with the Russian election-meddling investigation.

In economic news, several economic indicators delivered results today, including the 3Q employment cost index, reflecting 0.70% growth in line with market expectations; the Chicago purchasing managers index, reflecting 66.20 points versus a 60.00 consensus for October; and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller home price index, showing a 0.45% rise for August versus an expected 0.40%.

Further, the week continues with the FOMC decision on short term interest rates tomorrow; and several Fed governors scheduled to speak on the economy on Thursday and Friday. The week is expected to end with an announcement of the next Fed chair.

The curve has bear-flattened as the UST 10-Year yield modestly picked up 0.2 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/30 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.90% 1.00% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 1.60% 1.60% 1.40% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Sep 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% -  
                   
  10/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 3Q 0.70% 0.70% 0.50% -  
                   
  10/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug 0.40% 0.45% 0.35% 0.38%  
                   
  10/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 5.93% 5.92% 5.81% 5.83%  
                   
  11/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Oct - - -4.60% -  
                   
  11/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 200k - 135k -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 54.50 - 54.50 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 59.40 - 60.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 67.50 - 71.50 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep -0.10% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Nov 1.25% - 1.25% -  
                   
  11/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Nov 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  11/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - - -27.00% -  
                   
  11/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.60% - 1.50% -  
                   
  11/02 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q P 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Oct 235k - 233k -  
                   
  11/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Oct 1894k - 1893k -  
                   
  11/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Oct - - 51.00 -  
                   
  11/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 312k - -33k -  
                   
  11/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 4.20% - 4.20% -  
                   
  11/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 2.70% - 2.90% -  
                   
  11/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 63.10% - 63.10% -  
                   
  11/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$43.20b - -$42.40b -  
                   
  11/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 1.20% - 1.20% -  
                   
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - - 2.20% -  
                   
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - - 0.70% -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Services PMI 07:45 Oct F 55.90 - 55.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Composite PMI 07:45 Oct F - - 55.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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