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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-25 (-07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-28.5 (-03)  
 
  Support   1.876%  
 
  Resistance   1.724%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
 
 
   The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.859% this morning after closing at 1.825% yesterday.

  Bonds are in free fall this morning after strong manufacturing data out of China and higher commodity prices give investors confidence that the global economy is getting stronger and accommodation by central banks may end sooner than later. October was the worst month for Treasury yields in two years and November is looking to continue the trend. This morning economic data was mostly in line with US Manufacturing PMI at 53.40 vs. 53.20 expect, ISM Manufacturing at 51.90 vs. 51.70, Construction Spending month over month at -0.40% vs. 0.50% and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism at 51.40 vs. 49.00.

   Tomorrow we have Mortgage Applications and ADP as well as the November FOMC. There is very little chance the Fed will raise rates ahead of the presidential election on November 8th. Thursday has Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders. Friday brings us the October Nonfarm Payroll Report and Trade Balance.

    The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 3.4 bps higher from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/31 Personal Income 06:45 Sep 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/31 Personal Spending 06:45 Sep 0.40% 0.50% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator MoM 06:45 Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator YoY 06:45 Sep 1.20% 1.20% 1.00% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Core MoM 06:45 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Core YoY 06:45 Sep 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  10/31 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 06:45 Oct 2.00 - -3.70 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 53.20 53.40 53.20 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.50% -0.40% -0.70% -0.50%  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 51.70 51.90 51.50 -  
                   
  11/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Oct - - -4.10% -  
                   
  11/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 165K - 154K -  
                   
  11/02 ISM New York 06:45 Oct - - 49.60 -  
                   
  11/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 2 Nov 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 2 Nov 0.25% - 0.25% -  
                   
  11/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - - -24.70% -  
                   
  11/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  11/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Oct 256K - 258K -  
                   
  11/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Oct 2043K - 2039K -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct F 54.80 - 54.80 -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct F - - 54.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Oct - - - -  
                   
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - - - -  
                   
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - - - -  
                   
  11/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$42.00 B - -$40.70 B -  
                   
  11/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 165K - 156K -  
                   
  11/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 4.90% - 5.00% -  
                   
  11/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct - - 2.60% -  
                   
  11/04 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Oct - - 9.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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