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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-21 (-01.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-08.5 (-02)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   3.028%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 01, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.148% after closing at 3.144% prior.

Treasuries weakened overnight as the sell-off continued while global markets extended gains; U.S. stocks were mostly stronger as October’s late risk-on tone carried over into the first trading session of November. Risk appetite improved on Brexit optimism after the U.K. and the European Union tentatively agreed on financial services. Investors are also continuing to assess the latest batch of earnings results before Apple reports later today after close. Elsewhere, the Bank of England announced to keep its current policy unchanged, but signaled a faster pace of interest-rate increases over the next several years. Meanwhile, the dollar declined overnight and fell the most since July, while oil prices extended losses on reports that Russia will boost its output.

On the economic calendar, we received the 3Q Nonfarm Productivity report which rose 2.20% following an upwardly revised 3.00% gain prior; 3Q Unit Labor Costs rose 1.20% following a 1.00% decline prior. Also received, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 27 fell 2k to 214k from a revised 216k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended October 20 fell 7k to 1631k from a revised 1638k prior. Moreover, we also received the final reading of the October Markit US Manufacturing PMI which ticked slightly lower to 55.70 from 55.90 prior. The September Construction Spending index was also released this morning which was unchanged at 0.00% following a revised 0.80% increase prior. Lastly, we received the October ISM Manufacturing Index which fell to 57.70 from 59.80 prior; ISM Prices Paid rose to 71.60 from 66.90 prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.4 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/29 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  10/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  10/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Oct 28.10 29.40 28.10 -  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.07%  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 5.80% 5.49% 5.92% 5.90%  
                   
  10/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Oct - -2.50% 4.90% -  
                   
  10/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 187k 227k 230k 218k  
                   
  11/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - 153.60% 70.90% -  
                   
  11/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% 2.20% 2.90% 3.00%  
                   
  11/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q P 1.00% 1.20% -1.00% -  
                   
  11/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Oct 212k 214k 215k 216k  
                   
  11/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Oct 1640k 1631k 1636k 1638k  
                   
  11/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Oct - 60.30 60.10 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 55.80 55.70 55.90 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.80%  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 59.00 57.70 59.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 69.00 71.60 66.90 -  
                   
  11/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$53.60b - -$53.20b -  
                   
  11/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 200k - 134k -  
                   
  11/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 3.20% - 2.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 0.50% - 2.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - - 0.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - - 0.10% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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