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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-03.5 (-09.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-20 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.529%  
 
 
 
 
  Friday, November 1, 2019
 
 

Treasury Yields Increase - October Job Report Exceeds Expectations

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries lowered across all maturities. The 10-Year Treasury yield is currently at 1.7050, 1.4 bps increased from prior closing of 1.6910.

The Dow Jones traded 150 points higher at the open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.50%, an all-time high for the Nasdaq. The European Union has agreed to provide the United Kingdom with another 3 month extension to finalize the withdrawal agreement, providing the UK an opportunity to leave the EU any time before January 31, 2020. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 0.60%. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, reiterated that after this rate cut the central bank does not plan to make changes any time soon. Gold futures decreased 0.10% to $1,512.70 an ounce, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil advanced 0.90% to $54.67 a barrel. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 1.71%. Germany’s 10-Year yield gained less than one basis point to -0.41%. Britain’s 10-Year gained less than one basis point to 0.632%. The US Treasury will auction $45 billion in three-month bills and $42 billion in six-month bills on November 4th.

In a recent report released by the Labor Department, the US economy added 128,000 new jobs for the month of October. The unemployment rate remains the lowest in 50 years, rising to 3.60%. Average hourly earnings increased 3.00% compared to the previous year. The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 48.30 from a 10-year low. Despite the General Motors strike, the report showed that new orders, employment, and inventories all rose from the previous month. The exports index broke its 10-year low and showed its biggest gain since 2011, while the imports index contracted for the sixth straight month reaching a 10-year low. According to the Census Bureau, construction spending rose 0.50% with private and public construction rising 0.20% and 1.50%, respectively. State and local construction rose 1.60%, while federal construction fell 1.10%.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.4 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/28 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Sep 0.00 -0.45 0.10 0.15  
                   
  10/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Sep P 0.20% -0.30% 0.20% 0.00%  
                   
  10/28 Dallas Fed ManfActivity 07:30 Oct 1.00 - 1.50 -  
                   
  10/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug -0.10% -0.16% 0.02% 0.04%  
                   
  10/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 2.10% 2.03% 2.00% 2.03%  
                   
  10/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Sep 0.90% 1.50% 1.60% 1.40%  
                   
  10/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Sep 3.60% 6.30% 1.10% 1.00%  
                   
  10/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Oct - 0.60% -11.90% -  
                   
  10/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 110k 125k 135k 93k  
                   
  10/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 3Q A 1.60% 1.90% 2.00% -  
                   
  10/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 3Q A 2.60% 2.90% 4.60% -  
                   
  10/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 3Q A 1.90% 1.70% 2.40% -  
                   
  10/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 3Q A 2.20% 2.20% 1.90% -  
                   
  10/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 30 Oct 1.75% 1.75% 2.00% -  
                   
  10/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 30 Oct 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% -  
                   
  10/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - -33.50% -24.80% -  
                   
  10/31 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  10/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 1.40% 1.30% 1.40% -  
                   
  10/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Oct 215k 218k 212k 213k  
                   
  10/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Oct 1679k 1690k 1682k 1683k  
                   
  10/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 Oct - 61.00 63.40 -  
                   
  11/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 85k 128k 136k 180k  
                   
  11/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 3.60% 3.60% 3.50% -  
                   
  11/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 3.00% 3.00% 2.90% 3.00%  
                   
  11/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 63.10% 63.30% 63.20% -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 51.50 51.30 51.50 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 48.90 48.30 47.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 50.00 45.50 49.70 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.20% 0.50% 0.10% -0.30%
                   
 
 
 
 
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