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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-07.5 (+03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-00 (00)  
 
  Support   1.876%  
 
  Resistance   1.740%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
 
 
   The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.817% this morning after closing at 1.828% yesterday.

  Bonds are higher this morning as investors continue to shift out of risk assets and into safer assets such as gold and the Swiss franc. The tightening US presidential election is adding volatility and uncertainty to the market. This morning MBA Mortgage Applications came in down 1.20% week over week. ADP was weak at 147K vs. 165K expected but last months number of 154K was revised to 202K. Later today, we have the FOMC rate decision but with no press conference by Chairman Yellen scheduled and no rate cut expected, this looks to be a non event.​

   Thursday has Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders. Friday brings us the October Nonfarm Payroll Report and Trade Balance.

    The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year 1.1 bps lower from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/31 Personal Income 06:45 Sep 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/31 Personal Spending 06:45 Sep 0.40% 0.50% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator MoM 06:45 Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator YoY 06:45 Sep 1.20% 1.20% 1.00% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Core MoM 06:45 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Core YoY 06:45 Sep 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  10/31 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 06:45 Oct 2.00 - -3.70 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 53.20 53.40 53.20 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.50% -0.40% -0.70% -0.50%  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 51.70 51.90 51.50 -  
                   
  11/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Oct - -1.20% -4.10% -  
                   
  11/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 165K 147K 154K 202K  
                   
  11/02 ISM New York 06:45 Oct - 49.20 49.60 -  
                   
  11/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 2 Nov 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 2 Nov 0.25% - 0.25% -  
                   
  11/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - - -24.70% -  
                   
  11/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  11/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Oct 256K - 258K -  
                   
  11/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Oct 2043K - 2039K -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct F 54.80 - 54.80 -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct F - - 54.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Oct - - 43.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F -0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$42.00 B - -$40.70 B -  
                   
  11/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 165K - 156K -  
                   
  11/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 4.90% - 5.00% -  
                   
  11/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct - - 2.60% -  
                   
  11/04 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Oct - - 9.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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