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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-05 (+07)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-28 (+04)  
 
  Support   2.472%  
 
  Resistance   2.213%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 02, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.355% after closing at 2.373% during the prior session.

Today's session opened with US initial jobless claims for the week ended on October 28 at 229k; below both survey of 235k and a revised 234k for its prior mark. Continuing Claims for the week ended on October 21 came in at 1884k vs. 1894k survey and 1899k revised prior. The release signaled a strong performance in the labor market and sustained expectations of growth as the pace continues to approach the lowest levels in recent history.

Yesterday the Fed unanimously voted to hold short term interest rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the Bank of England raised rates today for the first time in over a decade. In other economic news, House Republican leaders plan to roll-out a tax bill later today. It is anticipated to cap the mortgage interest deduction for newly purchased homes at $500,000; down from the current cap of $1 Million for couples filing jointly. The announcement of Jerome Powell as President Trump's selection to be the next Fed chair seems highly likely according to market expectations.

The curve has bull-flattened as the UST 10-Year yield dropped 1.8 bps from prior closing
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/30 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.90% 1.00% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 1.60% 1.60% 1.40% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Sep 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% -  
                   
  10/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 3Q 0.70% 0.70% 0.50% -  
                   
  10/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug 0.40% 0.45% 0.35% 0.38%  
                   
  10/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 5.93% 5.92% 5.81% 5.83%  
                   
  11/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Oct - -2.60% -4.60% -  
                   
  11/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 200k 235k 135k 110k  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 54.50 54.60 54.50 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 59.50 58.70 60.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 67.80 68.50 71.50 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep -0.20% 0.30% 0.50% 0.10%  
                   
  11/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Nov 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% -  
                   
  11/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Nov 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -  
                   
  11/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - -3.00% -27.00% -  
                   
  11/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.60% 3.00% 1.50% -  
                   
  11/02 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q P 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  11/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Oct 235k 229k 233k 234k  
                   
  11/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Oct 1894k 1884k 1893k 1899k  
                   
  11/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Oct - 51.70 51.00 -  
                   
  11/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 310k - -33k -  
                   
  11/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 4.20% - 4.20% -  
                   
  11/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 2.70% - 2.90% -  
                   
  11/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 63.10% - 63.10% -  
                   
  11/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$43.20b - -$42.40b -  
                   
  11/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 1.20% - 1.20% -  
                   
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - - 2.20% -  
                   
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - - 0.70% -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Services PMI 07:45 Oct F 55.90 - 55.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Composite PMI 07:45 Oct F - - 55.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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