Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-14.5 (-12)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   97-04.5 (-09.5)  
 
  Support   3.233%  
 
  Resistance   3.028%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, November 02, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.173% after closing at 3.131% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight and into the open ahead of the October employment reports as global optimism turned higher on news that the U.S.-China trade rhetoric may be making progress on resolving differences. U.S. stock futures fell after disappointing earnings results from Apple after yesterday’s close, but losses were quickly reversed on reports that President Trump requested U.S. officials to draft potential terms of a trade deal with China ahead of his scheduled meeting with President Xi later this month. This morning treasury yields climbed higher after the jobs reports rebounded more than expected in October; the dollar rose on the data as it provided further support for the Fed’s rate-hike path. The next FOMC meeting will be held next week, and while another rate hike is unexpected, the Fed will likely emphasize their hawkish views on the upbeat economic conditions.

The October Nonfarm Payrolls rose 250k which exceeded expectations as market consensus called for 200k additional jobs; September’s data was revised down from 134k to 118k. Private Payrolls also increased more than expected at 246k versus 195k per consensus, and Manufacturing Payrolls gained 32k versus 16k per consensus. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged as expected at 3.70%, while the Underemployment Rate ticked down from 7.50% to 7.40% MoM. Average Earnings met expectations as Hourly Earnings gained 0.20% MoM which saw a climb in its YoY level from 2.80% to 3.10%. Labor Force Participation Rate was marginally higher in October at 62.90% versus 62.70% prior. We also received the September Factory Orders which rose 0.70% following an upwardly revised 2.60% gain prior. Durable Goods Orders rose 0.70% following a 0.80% increase prior, but was unchanged at 0.00% MoM excluding transportation. Lastly, both the Capital Goods Orders Nondefense and Capital Goods Shipments excluding Air fell 0.10% in September.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 4.2 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/29 Personal Income 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  10/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Sep 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  10/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  10/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Oct 28.10 29.40 28.10 -  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Aug 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.07%  
                   
  10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Aug 5.80% 5.49% 5.92% 5.90%  
                   
  10/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Oct - -2.50% 4.90% -  
                   
  10/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 187k 227k 230k 218k  
                   
  11/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - 153.60% 70.90% -  
                   
  11/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% 2.20% 2.90% 3.00%  
                   
  11/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 3Q P 1.00% 1.20% -1.00% -  
                   
  11/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Oct 212k 214k 215k 216k  
                   
  11/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Oct 1640k 1631k 1636k 1638k  
                   
  11/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Oct - 60.30 60.10 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 55.80 55.70 55.90 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.80%  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 59.00 57.70 59.80 -  
                   
  11/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 69.00 71.60 66.90 -  
                   
  11/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$53.60b -$54.00b -$53.20b -$53.30b  
                   
  11/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 200k 250k 134k 118k  
                   
  11/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% -  
                   
  11/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 3.10% 3.10% 2.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Oct 62.70% 62.90% 62.70% -  
                   
  11/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 0.50% 0.70% 2.30% 2.60%  
                   
  11/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F - 0.70% 0.80% -  
                   
  11/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F - 0.00% 0.10% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved