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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-06 (-04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-30.5 (-02)  
 
  Support   1.876%  
 
  Resistance   1.740%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, November 3, 2016
 
 
   The UST 10-Year yield is at 1.820% this morning after closing at 1.802% yesterday.

   Rates are higher this morning after the Bank of England said it no longer expects to cut interest rates again this year. Yesterday, the FOMC came as expected with no change to short term rates but the statement did include a few important points. The FED repeated September’s assessment of near term risks in the economy being “roughly balanced” but did not specify that there would be a rate hike in December, only stating that the case for an increase has “continued to strengthen”. The FED also noted that inflation is expected to rise to 2.00% in the medium term.

   This morning Nonfarm Productivity came in at 3.10% vs. 2.10% expected, the largest increase in the past 2 years. Initial Jobless Claims were 265K vs. 256K expected while Continuing Claims were lower at 2026K vs. 2043K expected. US Services PMI was in line with expectations at 54.80 and US Composite PMI was 54.90. Factory Orders were better at 0.30% vs. 0.20% expected but Durable Goods Orders were down at -0.30% vs. -0.10% expected. Friday brings us the October Nonfarm Payroll Report and Trade Balance.

   The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 1.8 bps higher from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  10/31 Personal Income 06:45 Sep 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/31 Personal Spending 06:45 Sep 0.40% 0.50% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator MoM 06:45 Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  10/31 PCE Deflator YoY 06:45 Sep 1.20% 1.20% 1.00% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Core MoM 06:45 Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  10/31 PCE Core YoY 06:45 Sep 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  10/31 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 06:45 Oct 2.00 - -3.70 -  
                   
  11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Oct F 53.20 53.40 53.20 -  
                   
  11/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 0.50% -0.40% -0.70% -0.50%  
                   
  11/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Oct 51.70 51.90 51.50 -  
                   
  11/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Oct - -1.20% -4.10% -  
                   
  11/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 165K 147K 154K 202K  
                   
  11/02 ISM New York 06:45 Oct - 49.20 49.60 -  
                   
  11/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 2 Nov 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  11/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 2 Nov 0.25% - 0.25% -  
                   
  11/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Oct - -39.10% -24.70% -  
                   
  11/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 3Q P 2.10% 3.10% -0.60% -0.20%  
                   
  11/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Oct 256K 265K 258K -  
                   
  11/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Oct 2043K 2026K 2039K 2040K  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct F 54.80 54.80 54.80 -  
                   
  11/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct F - 54.90 54.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Oct - 44.60 43.90 -  
                   
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F -0.10% -0.30% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  11/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$38.00 B - -$40.70 B -  
                   
  11/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 175K - 156K -  
                   
  11/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Oct 4.90% - 5.00% -  
                   
  11/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct - - 2.60% -  
                   
  11/04 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Oct - - 9.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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