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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-03.5 (-18)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-17 (-02)  
 
  Support   0.749%  
 
  Resistance   0.599%  
 
 
 
 
  Friday, November 6, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Rise As Joe Biden Extends His Lead

 
 
Market opened today's session with treasuries lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.8269, 6.4 bps increased from prior closing of 0.7629.
US stocks opened slightly lower this morning following a record four-day rally not seen since March. All eyes continue to be on the US presidential election, with Joe Biden leading in Georgia and closing in on Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. Current US President Donald Trump, has continued to attack the legitimacy of the election, raising the prospect of stalemate as his legal team continues to challenge results. The Republican party is projected to maintain control of the senate, even after making inroads into the House of Representatives. In regards to the pandemic, the US became the first country to ever record 100,000 infections on a single day, meanwhile, France joined Italy and Poland in reporting new daily infection highs as it prepared for a second wave. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil decreased by 2.4% to $37.87 a barrel while Gold rose by 0.1%. On the economic front, Change in Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 638K in the month of October. The Unemployment Rate reported similarly good figures after presenting a decline from a prior of 7.90% to a reported 6.90% in the month of October. While the labor market continues to recover, albeit at a slower pace, rising COVID cases continue to threaten economic recovery as a whole. Additionally, the labor market faces further headwinds from congress, which is poised to remain under Republican control, hence lowering the expectations of further fiscal stimulus as had been hoped for under a blue wave.
The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 6.40 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/02 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Oct 61.50 65.50 62.80 -  
                   
  11/02 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Sep 1.00% 0.30% 1.40% 0.80%  
                   
  11/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Sep 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  11/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Sep F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -  
                   
  11/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Sep F 0.80% 0.90% 0.80% -  
                   
  11/04 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 30 Oct - 3.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/04 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Oct 643k 365k 749k 753k  
                   
  11/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Sep -$63.90b -$63.90b -$67.10b -$67.00b  
                   
  11/04 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Oct F 56.00 56.90 56.00 -  
                   
  11/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Oct F - 56.30 55.50 -  
                   
  11/05 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 31 Oct 735k 751k 751k 758k  
                   
  11/05 Continuing Claims 05:30 24 Oct 7200k 7285k 7756k 7823k  
                   
  11/05 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 1 Nov - 47.50 46.30 -  
                   
  11/06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Oct 580k 638k 661k 672k  
                   
  11/06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  11/06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct 4.50% 4.50% 4.70% 4.60%
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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