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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-26 (+08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-15 (00)  
 
  Support   3.140%  
 
  Resistance   1.691%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Continue to Decline Along With Trade Optimism
 
 
Market opened today's session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. The 10-Year Treasury yield is currently at 1.8756, 5.91 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.9347.

The Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 all slipped this morning trading 0.20%, 0.30%, and 0.30% lower, respectively. The US and China have seemed to reach a stalemate before the first part of the trade deal could even be signed. The US seems to be delaying as Trump is not sure if he wants to remove existing tariffs, something that was previously negotiated between the US and China trade negotiators. These tariffs are scheduled to take effect December 15th and China has made it clear that they do not see their country moving forward with trade negotiations if the agreement to remove tariffs cannot be honored. The US Treasury will auction $55 billion in four-week bills, and $40 billion in eight-week bills. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries fell six basis points to 1.87%. Britains 10-Year Treasury declined five basis points to 0.75%. Germanys 10-Year yield sank five basis points to -0.299%. Japans 10-Year yield slipped two basis points to -0.042%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 0.70% to $56.42 a barrel. Meanwhile, gold climbed 0.40% to $1.462.20 an ounce.

The Mortgage Applications Index rose 9.60% for the week of November 8th, after declining 0.10% the previous week; making this the largest increase in mortgage applications since the week of August 9th. Applications to purchase a home and to refinance increased 5.10% and 12.90%, respectively. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke to the Joint Economic Committee this morning and reiterated that the central bank will likely not be cutting rates again, as long as the US economy stays on its current path. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times this year and states that other challenges such as trade tensions and low inflation will be taken into consideration if another rate cut is needed, but doesnt think it will be necessary. The Trump impeachment hearing started this morning at 7:00 AM PT and the House of Representatives are scheduled to hear testimony from two key figures. The House will use these testimonies to determine if Trump abused his power by withholding foreign aid to the Ukraine in return for favors and assistance in the upcoming US election.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 5.91 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  11/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  11/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Oct 102.00 102.40 101.80 -  
                   
  11/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Nov - 9.60% -0.10% -  
                   
  11/13 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Oct - 0.90% 0.90% 1.00%  
                   
  11/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% 0.40% 0.00% -  
                   
  11/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Oct 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  11/13 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Oct 257.227 257.346 256.759 -  
                   
  11/13 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Oct 265.074 265.011 264.595 -  
                   
  11/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Oct -$130.0b - -$100.5b    
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Oct 0.30% - -0.30%    
                   
  11/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Oct 0.90% - 1.40% -  
                   
  11/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Nov 215k - 211k -  
                   
  11/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Nov 1685k - 1689k -  
                   
  11/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Nov - - 59.10 -  
                   
  11/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Nov 6.00 - 4.00 -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct -0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct -2.30% - -1.60% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Oct -0.10% - -0.20% -  
                   
  11/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Oct - - -1.60% -  
                   
  11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Oct 0.20% - -0.30% -  
                   
  11/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Oct -0.40% - -0.40%    
                   
  11/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Oct 77.00% - 77.50% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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